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000
FXUS61 KBTV 162317
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
717 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...BUT
BRING ONLY CLOUDS AND MAYBE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...
LOOK FOR MORE DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2PM...THE FRONT HAS PUSHED AS FAR
SOUTH AS BURLINGTON AND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT WITH
MAYBE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
SUNSET. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S WITH MOST OF THE MID 30S READINGS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER BOTH DAYS WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILE ON FRIDAY SUGGESTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY...BUT LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AND THIS WILL START A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR SATURDAY. DEEPER MIXING WILL STILL
EXIST...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY...THUS
LOOKING AT LESS AND LESS WIND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7 AS PROGRESSIVE/ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY BY
EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WK. IN ADDITION...TO FAST MID/UPPER LVL FLW
PROGGED TO BE ACRS THE NE CONUS...A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL
GRADIENT WL DEVELOP. THIS COMBINED WITH EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND POSITION OF BOUNDARY WL MAKE TEMP/POP FCSTING DIFFICULT.
WL USE A BLEND OF PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS FCST...ALONG WITH LATEST
ECMWF FOR POPS/TEMPS. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING SUNDAY/MONDAY DRY
ATTM. HOWEVER...GIVEN POSITION OF STRONG LLVL WAA/THICKNESS RIDGE
AND POTENTIAL FOR 5H VORT SLIDING ALONG WARM FRNT BOUNDARY...WITH
SOME MID LVL RH PRESENT...A BAND OF SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUES. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF WAA...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF AN ELEVATED LAYER OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...SUPPORTING SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...VERY SIMILAR TO WEDS (5/15) SCENARIO.
OTHERWISE...WEAK RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRES TRIES TO BUILD INTO OUR
CWA FOR TUES/WEDS...BEFORE MORE ENERGY/MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE
WED/THURS. GIVEN CLOSE POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND FAST FLW ALOFT
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS ON TUES-
THURS TIME PERIOD. GFS HINTS AT OUR CWA BECMG WELL ESTABLISHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUES/WEDS...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S
TO MID 80S. MEANWHILE...LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED WITH
SFC HEATING AND KEEPS BEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF OUR FA. WL CONT
WITH A BLEND AND MENTION TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL THRU THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS ABOVE NORMAL...DUE TO CLOUDS/CHCS FOR
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY TUES/WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT TO BKN CIGS FROM FL050-090 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THOUGH TEND TO THIN LATER TONIGHT AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY SLOWLY ABATE. AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH ANY BKN MORNING VFR CIGS
TRENDING SCT TO SKC BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STILL MAINLY VFR...THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3
FOOT RANGE. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG/NASH
MARINE...BTV