National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 201955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AMBLES ABOUT THE NORTH EAST....RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL
SEE MILD TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE
REGION WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT...SPREADING
FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND
MORE VORTICITY MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY
BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS BEING THE OUTLIER TAKES THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTN...WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING IT OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. 925MB TEMPS DEPICT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NEK TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN LIFTED INDICES OF -2 FOR
AT LEAST NRN NY AND SRN HALF OF VT. SOME CAPE AND TEMP LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW TS TUESDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GEFS
SHOWING PWATS OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL DEPICTED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 925MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
UPPER TEENS...POSSIBLY LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW MOVES INTO
SERN ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SW FLOW...BRINGING IN MORE
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS LIFTED INDICES OF ZERO TO -4 SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SW JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AT 30-40 KTS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND NEARING 80 ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
DUE TO CLOUDS...IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.

NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC
LOW TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO
LOWER 60S. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN
NY WHERE POPS ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT
FURTHER REMOVED FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO
NH/MAINE. 00Z GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY...SO
CARRIED A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF
FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET
CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CONTROL AS IT DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX
CONDITIONS THRU NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW
BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN
EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN
TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BREAKS OF VFR
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR SOME IFR
RETURNS EARLY TOMORROW ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS AND MIST.

SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM KSLK TO
KRUT COULD POP A SHOWER MOVING FROM NW TO SE, COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
ISLD -TSRA.

GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MIST POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOWARD EARLY MORNING WITH MVFR LCL IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TUE MORNING AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE PM...WARM FRONT BRINGS MVFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
BRIEF IFR.
WED-THU...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR AS DRY NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...SISSON