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904
FXUS61 KBTV 302332
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
732 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Increasing showers this evening with isolated thunderstorms as
a front sweeps through the North Country this afternoon and
early evening. Periods of moderate rain are mostly expected in
the early showers and thunderstorms, which could lead to ponding
in poor drainage areas and minor field flooding. Weaker troughs
will bring additional chances of showers later this week, but
overall conditions will be calmer with mild temperatures.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 723 PM EDT Tuesday...Main area of showers is crossing the
region this evening, associated with the frontal
boundary/surface trough as it pushes eastward. Winds are
shifting to the north/northwest behind the boundary, though
expect the flow to turn pretty light overnight. With ample low
level moisture in place, there could be some fog development
overnight, though moisture profiles seem to favor low stratus.
Will watch trends as we go through the evening hours. Otherwise,
showers will end from west to east by midnight or so, and
temperatures will remain in the 40s. Have made some adjustments
to PoPs and temperatures to match the latest trends, but overall
the forecast is in good shape.

Previous discussion...Clearing to the west has increased
instability ahead of the main front, which is currently moving
into western New York. Although there is some mid level
instability, the greatest chances are further south over the
Hudson Valley, so although a few thunderstorms may pop up this
evening, we are not expecting a line of heavier thunderstorms
like we saw this morning and chances of hail within these storms
have decreased. Showers and thunderstorms will eventually
transition over to more widespread rain this evening as the main
front moves through.

Precipitation chances diminish behind the front tonight and
Wednesday, but kept some chances of showers with relatively mild
temperatures and upslope flow continuing. Temperatures will range
from the 40s overnight into the upper 50s/low-mid 60s for Wednesday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 331 PM EDT Tuesday...A weak shortwave drops down into the
region from Canada on Wednesday night into Thursday, leading to
some showers, particularly in northern areas. QPF values have
increased slightly from the previous forecast, although overall
less than 0.25" is still expected, mainly close to the Canadian
border. There is still some uncertainty between models on how
far southward this shortwave will dip, so adjusted QPFs downward
slightly to account for that. Should the front dip further
southward, QPF could be a little higher but still mostly under
0.5". Showers will move out Thursday afternoon and there should
at least be a little clearing. 925 mb temperatures generally
will be between 8-12 Celsius and as the showers move out, the
boundary layer should eventually mix that high. This would
support highs in the 60s, possibly reaching the low 70s further
south. There should be a decent north to south temperature
gradient as well as there will be lower 925 mb temperatures and
more showers/clouds to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 331 PM EDT Tuesday...Brief ridging builds in on Friday, leading
to dry weather and a few breaks in the clouds. The ridge looks to
break down on Saturday as an occluded front makes its way into the
region and brings some rain through Sunday morning. Overall,
the front should be falling apart as it moves through and the
QPF looks quite unimpressive, with less than a third of ensemble
members even bringing a quarter inch of rain to any part of the
region. A few members are suggesting that a low will develop
along the front and enhance the rainfall but those solutions
currently look to be the outliers. The trailing cold front looks
to move through around Monday and it may bring a few more
showers. Despite several fronts moving through during the time
period, temperatures look to be relatively consistent. Highs
should generally be in the 60s to around 70 while lows should
generally be in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 00Z Thursday...A mix of conditions this evening will
give way to widespread IFR ceilings by 06z Wednesday. Band of
showers associated with a frontal boundary currently moving
eastward will exit to the east by midnight, but lingering low
level moisture settling under the inversion will allow ceilings
to drop below 1000 ft and remain so into Wednesday morning. Note
some guidance is showing dense fog also developing overnight,
but with moisture profiles seeming to favor low stratus, have
left BR/FG out of the forecast for now. Ceilings will start to
lift after 12z Wednesday, though most sites will remain MVFR
through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will become light
and generally terrain-driven overnight and remain so through
the day Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
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&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Hastings/NWS CAR
SHORT TERM...NWS CAR
LONG TERM...NWS CAR
AVIATION...Hastings