-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 181930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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OTHER THAN A FEW EVENING SHOWERS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION MAY SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MORE
HUMID AND SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. HOWEVER CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH EVIDENT ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...ALONG WHICH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THUS INTRODUCED JUST AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...OTHERWISE I`M EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY NIGHT. CLOUDS A TAD
MORE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE MID TO HIGH LEVEL RH MAY
LINGER A TAD LONGER. NONETHELESS EXPECT MOST AREAS TO TREND CLEAR
TO PTLY CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH CUSTOMARY COOL/WARM SPOTS. DID
OPT TO BACK OFF ON BR/FG POTENTIAL AFTER ASSESSING THE 12Z
GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS ENOUGH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP
THE PBL OVERNIGHT TO FOSTER BETTER DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DOWN INTO
THE NEAR SURFACE LAYERS.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...OUTSTANDING STRETCH OF WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK (WED/THU) AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY ATOP THE
REGION. THUS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH SOME
SHALLOW DEPTH FAIR WX CUMULUS OCCURRING EACH DAY OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS LIGHT. AVERAGED 18-00Z
MODEL BLENDED 925 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM 68 TO 74 ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN 2-4 DEGREES MILDER 71 TO 77 OR SO BY THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS 38 TO 48 WED NIGHT...THOUGH WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN DOMINANT INFLUENCE. MODELS MAINTAIN THE
IDEA THAT A WEAK/DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. KEPT WITH THE
IDEA OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER JUST A TAD
FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY. LOWS A TAD MILDER AS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
EXPECTED...MAINLY 45 TO 55.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY
INTACT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING WHICH BEGINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OFF THE
COAST. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS WELL...BUT A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS/SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF
THE INTL BORDER WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED. GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SAID HEAT...BUT
BOTH SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE FLOW ALOFT TRENDS MORE WESTERLY GOING INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
THIS COMBINED WITH SOME DAILY INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT AS USUALLY IS THE
CASE ON FORECAST DAYS 6-7...VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES SO HAVE JUST PLAYED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A SHARP DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
ALL TERMINALS FEW-SKC BY 00-02Z EXCEPT FOR RUT WHERE CLOUDS WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO
SOME BR OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT
MPV/SLK. WINDS MAY NOT GO CALM ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FG TO
FORM...THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF TO MENTION OF BR INSTEAD AT
MPV/SLK. THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH
DAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NEILES