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000
FXUS61 KBTV 181746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY...THEN A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1220 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST MORE OR LESS REMAINS ON
TRACK AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST AND SOUTH FROM CANADA SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO TREND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN MILDEST
SPOTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY. FURTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS TO HANG ON A TAD
LONGER...AND WHILE SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHING/SINKING SOUTH OVER TIME...LACK OF INSOLATION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES A TAD COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MADE
THESE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY/TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. HAVE A GREAT AFTERNOON.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...TONIGHT STARTS OUR FIRST EXTENDED
PERIOD IN AWHILE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE AREA AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL. THERMAL PROFILE SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THUS WE WILL BE
APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY
INTACT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING WHICH BEGINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OFF THE
COAST. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS WELL...BUT A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS/SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF
THE INTL BORDER WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED. GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SAID HEAT...BUT
BOTH SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE FLOW ALOFT TRENDS MORE WESTERLY GOING INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
THIS COMBINED WITH SOME DAILY INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT AS USUALLY IS THE
CASE ON FORECAST DAYS 6-7...VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES SO HAVE JUST PLAYED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A SHARP DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
ALL TERMINALS FEW-SKC BY 00-02Z EXCEPT FOR RUT WHERE CLOUDS WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO
SOME BR OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT
MPV/SLK. WINDS MAY NOT GO CALM ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FG TO
FORM...THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF TO MENTION OF BR INSTEAD AT
MPV/SLK. THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH
DAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
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&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NEILES