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000
FXUS61 KBTV 172005
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH
WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED
OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS FRONT CONTINUES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA. BY 9 PM SHOWERS WILL BE DONE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THOUGH SOME CLOUDS LINGER WITH UPPER TROF
OVER THE AREA. UPPER TROF FINALLY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...DECENT CONFIDENCE ON EXPECTED WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST (THU/FRI) AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
STILL LOOKING AT A WEAK AND DYING SURFACE FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
FEW/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW BEST DYNAMICS PASSING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WITH
ONLY A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TRAILING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THUS SEE NO REASON TO TREND AWAY
FROM CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
VARIABILITY AT NIGHT OWING TO NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE LOWER...THOUGH WITH EVIDENCE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST
INTO OUR REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT BY ANY MEANS...BUT DEFINITELY LOOKING MORE
SUMMERLIKE AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING
INTO THE 60S. PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES DOES REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH HOWEVER...SO ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT TO SPARK OFF A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HERE AND
THERE THROUGH THESE LATER PERIODS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...VERY
DIFFICULT TO ATTEMPT TO TIME INDIVIDUAL COMPLEXES AND TOOK A MORE
PRAGMATIC APPROACH AT THIS POINT OFFERING ONLY LOWER CHC POPS (25
TO 35%) UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS LATER IN THE
WEEK.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
00Z WITH SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST THREAT OF
TSRA FROM KSLK-KBTV-K1V4 SOUTHWARD. SCT/BKN CIGS GENERALLY
VFR...THOUGH BRIEFLY MVFR IN HEAVIER CORES ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR
VSBY POSSIBLE. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KNOTS. AFTER 00Z
MAINLY PCPN FREE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. PATCHY
BR/FG AND IFR CONDS LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK...AND POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
AFTER 12Z...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH...MAINLY AFFECTING KRUT TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT
SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

06Z SATURDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR TWO TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING LOW AT THIS TIME.
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&&

.MARINE...
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AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT OF ANY STORMS IS CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN LAKE WATERS SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. THE
THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS HAS ENDED...THOUGH BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAY STILL OCCUR...AS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE VARIABLE NORTH TO SOUTH
DOWN THE LAKE...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY TREND WESTERLY FROM 5 TO 15
KNOTS THIS EVENING. WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT...THOUGH LOCALLY
HIGHER TO NEAR 2 FEET WITH A LIGHT CHOP ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE
AND IN BAYS WITH A WESTERLY EXPOSURE THIS EVENING.
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&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...JMG