-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 170534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT BRING
ONLY CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MORE
DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA. SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND MAINLY CLEAR SOUTH. NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT...AND FOR SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTH. COULD ALSO
BE A FEW SPRINKLES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER BOTH DAYS WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILE ON FRIDAY SUGGESTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY...BUT LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AND THIS WILL START A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR SATURDAY. DEEPER MIXING WILL STILL
EXIST...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY...THUS
LOOKING AT LESS AND LESS WIND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7 AS PROGRESSIVE/ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY BY
EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WK. IN ADDITION...TO FAST MID/UPPER LVL FLW
PROGGED TO BE ACRS THE NE CONUS...A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL
GRADIENT WL DEVELOP. THIS COMBINED WITH EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND POSITION OF BOUNDARY WL MAKE TEMP/POP FCSTING DIFFICULT.
WL USE A BLEND OF PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS FCST...ALONG WITH LATEST
ECMWF FOR POPS/TEMPS. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING SUNDAY/MONDAY DRY
ATTM. HOWEVER...GIVEN POSITION OF STRONG LLVL WAA/THICKNESS RIDGE
AND POTENTIAL FOR 5H VORT SLIDING ALONG WARM FRNT BOUNDARY...WITH
SOME MID LVL RH PRESENT...A BAND OF SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUES. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF WAA...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF AN ELEVATED LAYER OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...SUPPORTING SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...VERY SIMILAR TO WEDS (5/15) SCENARIO.
OTHERWISE...WEAK RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRES TRIES TO BUILD INTO OUR
CWA FOR TUES/WEDS...BEFORE MORE ENERGY/MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE
WED/THURS. GIVEN CLOSE POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND FAST FLW ALOFT
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS ON TUES-
THURS TIME PERIOD. GFS HINTS AT OUR CWA BECMG WELL ESTABLISHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUES/WEDS...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S
TO MID 80S. MEANWHILE...LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED WITH
SFC HEATING AND KEEPS BEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF OUR FA. WL CONT
WITH A BLEND AND MENTION TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL THRU THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS ABOVE NORMAL...DUE TO CLOUDS/CHCS FOR
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY TUES/WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KMPV/KSLK. BKN-OVC
CIGS FROM FL035-050 AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND FL020-030 AT
KMPV/KSLK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR
SO...THEN TREND TO SCT BY THE AFTERNOON AND SKC AFTER 00Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 5-10KTS THROUGH 00Z AS WELL...THEN
SLOWLY ABATE.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STILL MAINLY VFR...THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF