-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 181303
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
903 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY...THEN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 902 AM EDT TUESDAY...MODEST TWEAKS AS OF 900 AM...PRIMARILY TO
RAISE POPS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON PER LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA. ALSO ADDED AN
OUTSIDE SHOT OF A STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A DECENT
AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS WITH AIM ON CENTRAL/SRN VT BY LATER THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY...BUT PERHAPS JUST
ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW STORMS. REST OF FCST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH A GENERALLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ON TAP WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY AROUND 70. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY TWEAKED SKY COVER JUST A
BIT AS SOME PLACES STARTING WITH A BIT MORE SUN.
OTHERWISE...POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY. CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT. THE
TROUGH IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL ONLY HAVE THE
SHOWER THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS
NON-EXISTENT SO NO NEED TO MENTION THUNDER. THE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S TODAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...TONIGHT STARTS OUR FIRST EXTENDED PERIOD
IN AWHILE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA
AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS
WELL. THERMAL PROFILE SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THUS WE WILL BE APPROACHING
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY INTACT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING WHICH BEGINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OFF THE COAST.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
WELL...BUT A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS/SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SAID HEAT...BUT BOTH SHOW A
GENERAL WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT TRENDS MORE WESTERLY GOING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME DAILY INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT AS USUALLY IS THE CASE ON FORECAST
DAYS 6-7...VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY INDIVIDUAL FEATURES SO HAVE
JUST PLAYED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE COMING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA AFTER 14Z...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM KSLK TO KMPV WITH CONDITIONS LARGELY REMAINING VFR.
AFTER 18-21Z...SHOULD SEE A SHARP DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH ALL
TERMINALS SKC BY 00-02Z EXCEPT FOR KRUT WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THE LONGER. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO SOME IFR
BR/FG OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT KMPV/KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF