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000
FXUS61 KBTV 170829
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
429 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA...THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...BUT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 424 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SO LOOKING AT
INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WINDS NOT AS STRONG
AS YESTERDAY...DESPITE PRESENCE OF DEEP MIXING ONCE AGAIN.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 424 AM EDT FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUDY
PERIODS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. RETURN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS WHILE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. WEAK
OVERRUNNING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER BUT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WITH SOME PATCHY FROST. FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN.
TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN TONIGHT.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT FRIDAY...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARDS AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING FAIRLY DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER POSSIBLE. BY TUESDAY THOUGH...RIDGE BREAKS DOWN INTO FAST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
SLIDES SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER. AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONED...THIS WILL SET UP A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT TEMP
AND POP FORECASTS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
TAKE A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR TEMPS WHICH HIGHLIGHTS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARDS. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP LOOK TO BE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THOUGH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE BTV CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KMPV/KSLK. BKN-OVC
CIGS FROM FL035-050 AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND FL020-030 AT
KMPV/KSLK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR
SO...THEN TREND TO SCT BY THE AFTERNOON AND SKC AFTER 00Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 5-10KTS THROUGH 00Z AS WELL...THEN
SLOWLY ABATE.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STILL MAINLY VFR...THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF