-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 170733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT BRING
ONLY CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MORE
DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA. SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND MAINLY CLEAR SOUTH. NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT...AND FOR SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTH. COULD ALSO
BE A FEW SPRINKLES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER BOTH DAYS WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILE ON FRIDAY SUGGESTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY...BUT LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AND THIS WILL START A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR SATURDAY. DEEPER MIXING WILL STILL
EXIST...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY...THUS
LOOKING AT LESS AND LESS WIND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 332 AM EDT FRIDAY...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARDS AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING FAIRLY DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER POSSIBLE. BY TUESDAY THOUGH...RIDGE BREAKS DOWN INTO FAST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
SLIDES SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER. AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONED...THIS WILL SET UP A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT TEMP
AND POP FORECASTS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
TAKE A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR TEMPS WHICH HIGHLIGHTS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARDS. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP LOOK TO BE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THOUGH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE BTV CWA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KMPV/KSLK. BKN-OVC
CIGS FROM FL035-050 AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND FL020-030 AT
KMPV/KSLK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR
SO...THEN TREND TO SCT BY THE AFTERNOON AND SKC AFTER 00Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 5-10KTS THROUGH 00Z AS WELL...THEN
SLOWLY ABATE.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STILL MAINLY VFR...THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF