000
FXUS61 KBTV 161139
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR MID-MAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY...SOME PATCHY FOG LINGERING IN VALLEYS
OF EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE GENERALLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. SUNSHINE WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO SOME
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...AS CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN MAINE. MODERATELY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING...ANTICIPATE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND BREEZY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
SHALLOW INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ZONES.
RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT...AND WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 70S OVER THE
LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EDT THURSDAY...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.
PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS...SO AMOUNT OF
CLEARING QUESTIONABLE. HAVE GONE WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT
FOR 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDY PERIODS AND THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON HOURS DUE HEATING AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. AIRMASS MODIFIES A
BIT SATURDAY WHEN VALLEY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EDT THURSDAY...HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WHICH IS AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THOUGH GOING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WHILE A
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER WINDY
AFTERNOON EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS ABATE
AFTER 00Z...AND PRECIP CHANCES DISSIPATE AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF