000
FXUS61 KBTV 160543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH OVERNIGHT...THEN BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
WILL RIDGE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY WEATHER FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUD GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
U40S- L60S SO FAR. ALSO WITH SLGTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
RAIN...RADAR SHOWING REFLECTIVITIES JUST REACHING WRN NY/NW
PA...HAVE DELAYED INCREASING POPS A COUPLE HOURS AND MORE IN LINE
WITH MESOSCALE MODELS. OTHERWISE FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
OVERNIGHT...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BETWEEN
09-12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. 850 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 C AND
WITH CLEAR SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY TOWARDS MORNING EARLY OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPS
ONLY DROP TO THE MID 50S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE
CLOUDS ARRIVE FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 12-18Z. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED
CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...THOUGH INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE MILD WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH JUST A FEW READINGS REACHING 70. LOW BECOMES DOUBLE BARRELED
AND ONE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHER SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY
TRACK JUST NORTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS LOW SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT IN
TIME...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT
BETTER COVERAGE THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 70S MONDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SOMETIME
MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE JUST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AS SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER TROF CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...MORE OR LESS A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WILL BE OFFERED DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
AS 12Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN OVERALL CONSISTENCY WITH
ONE ANOTHER. PRIMARY IDEA WILL BE BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEING THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE BY LATER TUESDAY INTO THE
FRIDAY TIME FRAME. EARLY ON...DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY KEEP A FEW/SCT SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS OUR
AREA (ESP NORTH) THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
MAINLY TRENDING DRY AND PC/CLR FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S...THOUGH WITH LOCAL
VARIATION IN THE CUSTOMARY WARM/COOL SPOTS GIVEN EXPECTED
NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS. SLIGHTLY MILDER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES
THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY CONTINUED EVIDENCE THAT A WEAK FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER OR OUR NRN
TIER OF COUNTIES. NOT MUCH DYNAMICAL UPPER SUPPORT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MODESTLY STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES A TAD WARMER BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. BY NEXT
SATURDAY WHAT`S LEFT OF THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY ALONG
WITH BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND APPROACHING DYNAMICS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THUS HAVE HIGHLIGHTED AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER AS MAX TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z...THEN CEILINGS WILL START TO LOWER AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AS AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS LOOKING AT VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
AFTER 16Z...BUT THE RAIN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
VISIBILITIES WITH VFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...THEN LOOKING AT A SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BETWEEN 22Z
AND 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...LINGERING RAIN ENDS EARLY
RESULTING IN GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG
ESPECIALLY FOR TYPICALLY FOG-PRONE MPV AND SLK.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH OCNL
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH REGION.
THUNDER/CB POSSIBLE 15Z MONDAY THROUGH 03Z TUESDAY.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/MIST POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH
BEST THREAT AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...EVENSON/JMG