-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 161652
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING
MORE RAIN AND INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1246 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. RAIN
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AND HAS
REACHED THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AS OF 1230 PM. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM...AND EASTERN
VERMONT BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN FOCUSED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH SOUTHERN
VERMONT NOT SEEING MUCH MORE THAN SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAIN
WILL THEN TAPER OFF TO SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1017 AM EDT SUNDAY...
THE RAIN HAS ENTERED THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 10 AM AND
WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY...ENTERING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY AROUND NOON...AND THE
REMAINDER OF VERMONT BY 2 PM. HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH THE DAY AS
RAIN BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE ANTICIPATED
TRACK OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER THERE. THE RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PASSES...GENERALLY
3 PM IN WESTERN NEW YORK...5 PM IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND 7 PM
IN EASTERN VERMONT WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE
HANGING ON AFTERWARD. HEAVIEST CURRENT RATES BEING OBSERVED OVER
ONTARIO OF ABOUT TWO TENTHS PER HOUR WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY THE TIME THE RAIN ENDS A GENERAL
0.5-0.75" OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH 0.25-0.5" ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT...AND 0.10-0.25" IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED IN MUCH OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND WILL BE REACHED PRIOR TO RAIN ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY
IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...SFC LOW BECOMES DOUBLE BARRELED AND ONE
SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. OTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY TRACK NORTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER...TOWARDS THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER DELTA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DRAG
A COOL FRONT TO ITS SOUTH AND INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
IT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING ON MONDAY WITH WAA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE SEVERE
CONVECTION...BUT BETTER COVERAGE THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIFTED
INDICES LOWER TO -2C TO -4C AND INCREASED CAPE VALUES OVER 600
J/KG. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SOMETIME MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ON TUESDAY SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER BUT OVERALL DRYING
TREND EXPECTED AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE 50S. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. BEHIND THE COOL/COLD FRONT...MAX TEMPS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THIS
KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER ON FRIDAY. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS THINKING.
WITH THIS PATTERN...THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WE SEE A TREND TOWARD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH WILL CREATE A WARMING TREND AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WOULD LEAD TO OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...THEN
CEILINGS WILL START TO LOWER AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS LOOKING AT VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AFTER
16Z...BUT THE RAIN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
VISIBILITIES WITH VFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. AFTER 22Z CEILINGS WILL SETTLE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
ALL AREAS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN...THEN LOOKING AT A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH OCNL
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH REGION.
THUNDER/CB POSSIBLE 15Z MONDAY THROUGH 03Z TUESDAY.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/MIST POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH
BEST THREAT AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/NEILES
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/JMG