-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 161118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING
MORE RAIN AND INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 718 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SYSTEM PROGRESSING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FCST.
ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WITH PRECIP ENTERING SLV BTWN
12Z AND 14Z...SPREADING EWD INTO THE CPV BTWN 14Z AND 16Z...AND
CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN VT IN THE AFTN.
UPSTREAM OBS INDICATING AREAS OF OVER 1 INCH OF RAINFALL FROM
THIS SYSTEM...BUT NOTING THAT IR IMAGERY SHOWS WARMER CLOUD TOP
TEMPS AS IT HAS PROGRESSED EWD. HAVE INCREASED QPF AMNTS TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF...SREF AND NAM. GFS OUTLIER WITH ALMOST 2
INCHES IN THE SLV. HEAVIEST PRECIP EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
MAIN CLOUD SHIELD CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND EDGING ITS WAS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL
PRESS EASTWARD...EXPECTING TO REACH THE SLV MID TO LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS NRN NY...REACHING ERN VT
THIS AFTN. LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
CAN`T RULE OUT THUNDER ALL TOGETHER...BUT LIMITED TO MAINLY NRN
NY AS INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST...WITH NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDICES ONLY EDGING INTO THE ADKS AND LESS THAN 200 J/KG
OF CAPE OVER THE AREA. RAINFALL AMNTS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A
QUARTER INCH TO HALF INCH THROUGH THE EVENING HRS. RAINFALL WILL
EXIT ERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MILD WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN...MAINLY MID TO NEAR 70.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...SFC LOW BECOMES DOUBLE BARRELED AND ONE
SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. OTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY TRACK NORTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER...TOWARDS THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER DELTA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DRAG
A COOL FRONT TO ITS SOUTH AND INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
IT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING ON MONDAY WITH WAA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL HAVE SEVERE
CONVECTION...BUT BETTER COVERAGE THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIFTED
INDICES LOWER TO -2C TO -4C AND INCREASED CAPE VALUES OVER 600
J/KG. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SOMETIME MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ON TUESDAY SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER BUT OVERALL DRYING
TREND EXPECTED AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE 50S. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. BEHIND THE COOL/COLD FRONT...MAX TEMPS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THIS
KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER ON FRIDAY. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS THINKING.
WITH THIS PATTERN...THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WE SEE A TREND TOWARD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH WILL CREATE A WARMING TREND AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WOULD LEAD TO OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z...THEN CEILINGS WILL START TO LOWER AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AS AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS LOOKING AT VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
AFTER 16Z...BUT THE RAIN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
VISIBILITIES WITH VFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...THEN LOOKING AT A SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BETWEEN 22Z
AND 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...LINGERING RAIN ENDS EARLY
RESULTING IN GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG
ESPECIALLY FOR TYPICALLY FOG-PRONE MPV AND SLK.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH OCNL
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH REGION.
THUNDER/CB POSSIBLE 15Z MONDAY THROUGH 03Z TUESDAY.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/MIST POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH
BEST THREAT AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/NEILES
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/JMG