-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 161746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR MID-MAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 145 PM EDT THURSDAY...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES IN FULL
SWING WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WILL
BE HARD TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS...WITH SOME
SPRINKLES MORE LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 40 MPH RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT ABOUT AT MAXIMUM AND
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL HEATING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EDT THURSDAY...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.
PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS...SO AMOUNT OF
CLEARING QUESTIONABLE. HAVE GONE WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT
FOR 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDY PERIODS AND THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON HOURS DUE HEATING AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. AIR MASS MODIFIES A
BIT SATURDAY WHEN VALLEY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EDT THURSDAY...HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WHICH IS AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THOUGH GOING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WHILE A
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECTED
TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY IT IS RIGHT ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. SHOULD BE THROUGH BTV BY 20Z AND THEN DOWN TO THE RUTLAND
AREA BY 23Z. WITH THE FRONT, THE GUSTY WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS FROM
4500-8000 FEET MOVE IN. COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS, BUT DON`T EXPECT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF -- NOR WILL THEY HAVE ANY IMPACT ON CEILING OR VISIBILITY.

WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.

CLOUD DECK WILL SLOWLY FADE AWAY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHTER WINDS AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
18Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STILL MAINLY VFR, THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3
FOOT RANGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...EVENSON