-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 151445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY AND CLEAR BEFORE
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SATURDAY...ONLY MADE VERY MINOR UPDATES THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TEMP AND WIND
OBS. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINA`S...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
EAST...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS MORNING. LOW OF SUN EXPECTED TODAY...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM THE 40S AND 50S THIS MORNING INTO THE
70S THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF THIS MORNING AS THE CLEAR SKIES PROVIDE LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC...OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE S
CAROLINA COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL CLEAR DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND
INCREASING 500MB HTS. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL
RESULT...ALONG WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW TO W AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
EWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CAN BE SEEN PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS OVER QUEBEC IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH GENERAL NW FLOW USHERING IN DRIER AIR
ONLY NE VT ALONG THE BORDER MAY SEE SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS.

CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE EVENING
HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SHOWERS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M40S- M50S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FGEN
INDICATED BY THE 00Z NAM...ALONG WITH THETA E RIDGING IN THE WAA
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. AT THE SFC...CENTER LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO
TRAVERSE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SO THE WAA WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING...SPREADING
WEST TO EAST...WITH INCREASING THREAT OF TS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
LLJ FEEDS MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH...AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH
925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE
M60S- L70S.

BREAKS FROM RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA...SO SHOWERS STILL PSBL
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S.

MONDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY INDICATED BY LIFTED INDICES OF -2C TO -4C.
WAA CONTINUES WITH 925MB TEMPS REACH 16C-18C...RESULTING IN MAX
TEMPS IN THE U60S TO U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF ITEMS STAND OUT IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THAT IS THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPS A TROUGH OVER LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...THEN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW AND
BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
OTHER ITEM THAT STANDS OUT AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE AREA IS THE TEMPERATURES. WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT ...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z AND 00Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
IN SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION.
PATCHY BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESP AT KSLK/KMPV.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR/FG AND ASSOCIATED
IFR POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON