000
FXUS61 KBTV 240016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
816 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS
WILL MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE
RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 754 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE TEMPS ARE NOW FALLING THROUGH THE 50S. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS REST OF AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS...THUS FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT
LATEST CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY
CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM
AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY
EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO
SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

FALLING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
SLOWLY SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH OVER 100M 12H HGT FALLS REACHING THE
DELMARVA AREA BY 00Z SAT THEN ROTATE NORTH TO CAPE COD BY 00Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THEN WAITS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.
STRONG QG FORCING, WARM MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND STRONG LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO COMBINE TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO PUT A BIT OF WET SNOW AT THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS (ABOVE 2500 FT) ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT ANOTHER 0.75-1.50" OF STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY...HOW FAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A
QUESTION. LEANED TOWARD THE EMCWF WHICH IS NOT GREAT NEWS FOR THE
THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE AROUND SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE MARATHON IN BURLINGTON.
KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON SUNDAY, HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING, BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS WITHOUT SHOWERS AS WELL.
RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S SUNDAY MORNING AND AND LOW
TO MID 50S IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE QUITE COLD FOR MAY WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.

ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE MOVING FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK INTO
THE 60S.

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE TUE-THU WITH
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THE FORECAST BY
WED AND THU AS TEMPERATURE BECOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH RETURNING
HUMIDITY AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH FORMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
WHILE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF STORMS
WILL DECREASE AS COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO PREVAILING
M,VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHIFTING WINDS THIS
EVENING DUE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 754 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM
FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER THE SAME
AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION ON
FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING AS MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR WITH ANY POTENTIAL STORMS...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND/WAVE OCCURRENCE IN VICINITY OF ANY THUNDER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-034-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...