-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
356
FXUS61 KBTV 112348
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
748 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue for the next few days, generally
becoming more prevalent during the days and diminishing a bit during
the nights. Despite the many days of showers, the rain will not be
enough to very impactful. Temperatures will generally be at or below
normal. Steadier rain looks to arrive Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 733 PM EDT Saturday...The forecast remains in overall
great shape. Clouds and occasional showers associated with an
upper low centered over southern Ontario continues to stream
into our CWA early this evening. While no impactful weather is
expected, it does mean that the sky cover would remain too cloudy
or overcast tonight for effective viewing of the northern lights
associated with the G4 geomagnetic storm across most of North
Country.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating has caused a few low-
topped convective showers to develop, mostly across northern New
York and the Champlain Valley. The strongest storms can have
lightning and pea sized hail, but the vast majority of the
showers have neither of those features. The showers will
generally continue with their current coverage through the
afternoon before beginning to dissipate this evening. They will
most likely be lighter, more scattered, and confined to parts of
northern New York tonight. Clouds have developed across the
region during the day and will continue into the evening. They
should partially dissipate across the Northeast Kingdom this
evening where the 5000-1000 ft RH is lower and where the clouds
are almost completely the result of the diurnal heating. These
factors should allow a brief period later this evening where
aurora viewing might be possible, before clouds move in from the
west later in the night. The extent of this clearing is very
uncertain. Western Vermont and northern New York look to be too
much in the influence of an approaching shortwave where the lack
of diurnal heating will likely will not be enough to cause the
clouds to dissipate. Lows tonight will be in the 40s. The
shortwave will pass over the region tomorrow and bring more
daytime showers, though they will not be as confined to western
areas. This shortwave passes to the east Sunday Night and brief
ridging should cause it to be dry. For two days of on and off
showers, QPF is relatively light. It ranges from a few hundreths
of an inch over eastern Vermont to around a half inch over
northern New York. Areas that see the heavier showers will
receive locally more and areas that miss the heaviest showers
will receive locally less.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 352 PM EDT Saturday...Unsettled weather is expected across the
region at the start of the week. Monday morning will start off on
the dry side due to weak upper level ridging, before rain associated
with an incoming warm front arrives in northern New York sometime in
the late morning to early afternoon, marking the start of some
widespread, wetting rainfall across the region. Temperatures during
the day will be seasonable, generally in the 60s. Overnight lows
will be mild due to abundant cloud cover, with temperatures in the
upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 352 PM EDT Saturday...The unsettled weather continues into the
middle of next week, with an upper low located over Quebec and
associated frontal boundary bringing widespread precipitation to the
region. There is a little uncertainty with where the axis of
heaviest rainfall will set up, with deterministic guidance in slight
disagreement. Model sounding are not overly supportive with CAPE
values less than 200 J/kg across most of the area, a rumble or two
of thunder is not out of the question during the day on Tuesday,
especially if clouds are able to clear out during the morning to
allow for more diurnal heating. While ensemble guidances supports
rainfall amounts less than an inch, precipitable water values will
approach 1.25 inches, near the 90th percentile based on SPC sounding
climatology for Albany, so trends will be something to monitor with
future forecasts. Precipitation should begin to taper off towards
Wednesday evening as the upper low shifts to the east. Temperatures
will be seasonable during the day on Tuesday, with highs in the 60s.
Overnight lows will continue to be mild with lingering cloud cover,
in the 40s to mid 50s. Heading into the later half of next week, a
brief period of dry weather looks to build in across the region,
with high temperatures warming into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 00Z Monday...Upper-level low remains in the vicinity,
which will keep persistent unsettled weather conditions in
place amid a generally unstable atmosphere. Scattered showers
will wane in coverage after sunset today, then redevelop again
Sunday afternoon as diurnal instability redevelops. These
showers will have little impact on aviation conditions, with
ceilings generally remaining VFR and visibilities above 6SM even
within the showers. Will however see a brief window for
ceilings to lower to MVFR levels between MVFR ceilings between
10Z and 18Z, especially over NY TAF sites along with the
Champlain Valley. Any MVFR ceilings that do develop will lift to
VFR by 20Z.  Winds will remain light from the south.


Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Isolated SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Chai/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Duell