Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FGUS71 KBTV 071526
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NYC019-031-033-089-VTC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-
027-091530-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1026 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /1/...

THIS IS THE FIRST FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE 2016 WINTER/SPRING
SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON VERMONT TO SUMMARIZE THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT AND BREAK UP OF RIVER ICE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

...OVERVIEW...

THE FLOOD OUTLOOK DUE TO SNOWMELT AND ICE JAMS IS BELOW NORMAL FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. EARLY WINTER
SNOWPACK AND RIVER ICE CONDITIONS ARE BELOW NORMAL.

...SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

SNOW COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTH AND CENTRAL VERMONT
CAN BE DESCRIBED AS MEAGER AT BEST. EVEN MOUNTAIN TOP LOCATIONS
REPORT ONLY A FOOT TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW, AND VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE
4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS THERE WAS ONLY ONE TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND.

THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, OR AMOUNT OF LIQUID WATER HELD IN THE
SNOWPACK, WAS AN INCH OR LESS IN THE VALLEYS AND ONE TO TWO INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

...RIVER AND SOIL CONDITIONS...

RIVER ICE COVERAGE WAS LAGGING SEASONAL NORMALS, AS THE RECORD
WARM DECEMBER DELAYED ICE FORMATION. MAIN RIVER CHANNELS HAD
LITTLE TO NO ICE COVERAGE. SMALLER MOUNTAIN STREAMS HAD SOME ICE
PRESENT BUT WERE RUNNING FREELY. THE AMOUNT OF RIVER ICE IS MUCH
LESS THAN NORMAL.

SOILS WERE ONLY BEGINNING TO FREEZE AT THE START OF THE MONTH. THE
THIN SNOW COVER WAS PROVIDING SOME INSULATION FROM THE RECENT
COLD, AND GROUND FROST EXTENDED DOWN A FEW INCHES AT BEST. SOILS
ARE MOIST, AS ANY PRECIPITATION IN DECEMBER FELL AS LIQUID AND WAS
ABSORBED INTO THE GROUND.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THE NORTHEAST WILL RETURN TO THE RECENT WINTRY TREND WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS WEEKEND.
PRIOR TO THAT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY WILL TURN TO RAIN
AND MILD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY FURTHER ERODE
THE SNOW COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. LONGER
RANGE FORECASTS CALL FOR A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN US THROUGH MID MONTH, A PATTERN THAT FAVORS PERIODIC
INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR IN THE NORTHEAST.

...SUMMARY...

THE SPRING SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT IS BELOW NORMAL.
SNOW COVER ON LAND AND ICE COVER ON RIVERS ARE EQUALLY THIN, AND
POSE LITTLE FLOOD THREAT. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR THIS MONTH WILL INCREASE RIVER ICE FORMATION.

THE PROBABILITY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN FLOODING IS LOW BASED ON MELT
OF THE EXISTING SNOW COMBINED WITH NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE LAKE
LEVEL WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON JANUARY 21.

ACCESS CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON OUR WEB SITE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV.

$$

HANSON


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