Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FGUS71 KBTV 081601
ESFBTV
NYC019-031-033-089-VTC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-
027-101615-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1101 AM EST THU JAN 8 2015

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /1/...

...LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOWMELT OR ICE JAM FLOODING...

THIS IS THE FIRST FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE 2015 WINTER/SPRING
SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY THROUGH THE WINTER
AND SPRING BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON VERMONT
TO SUMMARIZE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOW MELT AND BREAK UP OF
RIVER ICE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT, AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

...OVERVIEW...

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SNOWMELT OR ICE JAM FLOODING
THROUGH LATE JANUARY. SNOW PACK ACROSS THE REGION IS BELOW
NORMAL, AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. RIVER ICE IS
GROWING, ALTHOUGH NO INCREASE IN RIVER FLOWS IS FORECAST TO BREAK
UP THE ICE COVER.

...SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

SNOW DEPTH AND THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
REGION WAS BELOW NORMAL. IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SNOW
DEPTH WAS TWO TO 6 INCHES, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
HAD VERY LITTLE SNOW COVER. THESE SNOW DEPTHS ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, OR THE LIQUID WATER CONTENT HELD IN THE
SNOW PACK WAS ALSO BELOW NORMAL. MOST LOCATIONS HAD TWO INCHES OR
LESS OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, ALTHOUGH HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAD TWO
TO FOUR INCHES, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT.

...RIVER AND SOIL CONDITIONS...

EXTENSIVE RIVER ICE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE ARCTIC COLD SINCE THE
END OF DECEMBER. RIVER FLOWS HAVE FALLEN AND STABILIZED AFTER THE
LATE DECEMBER RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT EPISODE.

SOIL MOISTURE WAS NEAR NORMAL. THE THIN SNOW COVER AND FRIGID
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED FROST TO PENETRATE DEEP INTO THE SOIL,
WITH FROST DEPTHS IN BARE GROUND DOWN TO 20 INCHES. AREAS THAT
HAVE RETAINED SOME INSULATING SNOW COVER REPORT FROST DEPTHS OF
FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES. FROZEN SOILS WOULD ENHANCE RUNOFF RATHER
THAN ABSORB EXCESS MOISTURE.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THE REGION WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE ARCTIC COLD THROUGH MID JANUARY
AS THE COLDEST AIR RETREATS BACK NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BRING ACTIVE WEATHER WITH PERIODIC CLIPPER WEATHER SYSTEMS AND
COLD FRONT PASSAGES. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, AND ANY
ADDITIONS TO SNOWPACK WILL BE LIGHT.

...SUMMARY...

SNOWMELT OR ICE JAM FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST THROUGH LATE
JANUARY. SNOW COVER IS THIN AND THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE TO MELT THE MEAGER SNOWPACK OR PRODUCE
RAIN. COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED RIVER ICE COVERAGE AND
THICKNESS, AND THE ICE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE AS SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY
JANUARY 22.

ACCESS CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON OUR WEB SITE
AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BTV.

$$

HANSON



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