179
FXUS64 KEWX 300551 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1251 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

We have updated the forecast to add a mention of showers and
thunderstorms through mid-evening across the coastal plains region.
We could see a strong storm or two over the next hour or so, with
activity expected to weaken with the loss of daytime heating.
Otherwise, only minor changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Quiet weather is expected this afternoon and evening outside of the
potential for a stray thunderstorm across the far southeastern
portion of the Coastal Plains as an outflow boundary from convection
over the Gulf of Mexico continues to move inland. Any storm that
fires in this environment will have the potential to become severe
with current SBCAPE values around 4,000 J/kg and effective shear
around 35-50 kts based on the latest SPC Mesoanalysis data.
Otherwise, we can expect low status and areas of patchy fog to
redevelop overnight/early Tuesday morning. Closer to sunrise, we may
start to see some patchy drizzle/light rain showers begin to develop
across mainly southern portions of the area as well.

Tomorrow afternoon, there will once again be a low potential for an
isolated storm or two to develop along the seabreeze and/or any
lingering boundary from today`s convection across southern portions
of the Coastal Plains. There is a better chance for storms to fire
along a dryline out in west Texas and along the SDB Mountains in
Mexico. This activity will try to push west into our area through
the evening hours, but more likely than not will struggle to do so
before dissipating. Low clouds and patchy fog looks likely again
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move over TX in
westerly flow aloft during the first part of the long term period.
The first will combine with a dryline in the boundary layer and bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and night.
There may be sufficient bouyancy and vertical wind shear to produce
strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Large hail
and isolated tornadoes are the main threat. Another upper disturbance
will bring chances for convection Thursday afternoon and evening.
Friday a cold front will move through Central Texas and then through
our CWA Friday night. This will bring another chance for showers and
thunderstorms, but it looks like it will be a weak boundary and
chances are low. The front will stall in the region and another upper
shortwave trough will move across Saturday making convection possible
again. Another dryline could generate storms Sunday afternoon and
evening. Weak ridging will bring dry weather Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

MVFR conditions are forecast to persist across KSAT and KSSF for the
next several hours before IFR cigs show up around 10Z. For KAUS,
there is a delay for MVFR cigs to develop, however, it is in the
forecast to begin within the next few hours. VFR conditions return
around 18Z for all area terminals. Southeast to south winds of 5 to
10 knots are forecast to prevail overnight and 8 to 12 knots during
the day on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              86  71  83  72 /  10  10  50  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  70  83  70 /  10  10  50  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     87  71  85  72 /  10  10  40  50
Burnet Muni Airport            84  70  81  70 /   0  10  40  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  75  89  74 /   0  10  30  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        84  70  83  70 /  10   0  40  60
Hondo Muni Airport             88  70  85  70 /   0  10  40  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  70  84  70 /  10  10  50  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   84  71  83  73 /  20   0  50  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       86  71  84  72 /  10  10  40  50
Stinson Muni Airport           87  73  85  72 /  10  10  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...04
Aviation...17