518
FXUS64 KEWX 291737
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1237 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Latest area radars trends and HREF guidance are in good agreement
with the continuation of isolated shower activity and even a
thunderstorm or two over the far east of the local area or east of
Highway 77 for the rest of the overnight period. Overnight lows are
forecast to range from the upper 50s to low 60s across the southern
Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country to upper 60s to low 70s for
areas along and east of I-35 and the Coastal Plains. A dry-line is
slowly pushing to the northwest overnight with dewpoints in the 70s
across the moist sector. A few stations are reporting visibility at
a 1/4 mile over the Hill Country due to dense fog development. Areas
of fog to widespread dense fog are possible the rest of the
overnight through Monday morning. We are closely monitoring surface
observations and latest hires models for the possibility of the
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory over parts of the Hill Country, I-
35 corridor and the Coastal Plains. Otherwise, expect cloudy
conditions for most areas through late this morning with fog lifting
at or shortly after 9 AM. Mostly sunny skies are in store for this
afternoon with highs in mid to upper 80s across the Hill Country and
along the I-35 corridor to the mid 90s along the Rio Grande. There
is a slight chance for a storm or two to develop across the Coastal
Plains this afternoon. Also, some of the hires models are indicating
isolated thunderstorm activity over the Mexican mountains that could
move into the Rio Grande Plains late this afternoon. Clouds return
across most areas this evening into Tuesday morning with patchy to
areas of fog developing across the Coastal Plains. Lows ranging from
the low 60s to low 70s. There are slight to low end chances for
showers and storms along and east of the I-35 corridor and the
Coastal Plains on Tuesday as an upper level short wave moves across
the local area. Also, can`t rule out a storm or two moving into Val
Verde County late Tuesday afternoon ahead of the dry-line that stays
over west Texas for this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A series of mid level shortwaves will move over Texas in a westerly
flow aloft. The dryline remains across West Texas with the exception
of Thursday when it mixes east into Val Verde County. An upslope
flow develops over the Serranias del Burro of Mexico each afternoon.
There remains uncertainty on a frontal incursion on Friday as
operational models and their ensembles give various forecasts and
impacts. Regardless, any front is expected to dissipate or retreat
to the north by Saturday. A moist, breezy southerly lower level flow
will prevail. These features along with daytime heating should
produce rounds of showers and thunderstorms over various parts of
our area. Currently, the highest POPs are on Wednesday, Thursday,
and Saturday. Forecast soundings show moderate to high CAPE and low
to moderate shear indicating a potential for a few strong to severe
storms, at times. In addition, above normal PWs prevail showing a
potential for locally heavy rains especially where storms train or
stall. WPC has parts of our area in risks for excessive rainfall for
Wednesday and Thursday. Though there are POPs most of the time,
there will be many rain free periods. Above normal temperatures
prevail.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Conditions have improved to VFR early this afternoon across south-
central Texas, and will remain VFR through the evening hours before
MVFR to IFR cigs as well as pockets of reduced visibility in BR
redevelop overnight/early Tuesday morning. Conditions will then
slowly improve back to VFR through the late morning hours. Winds will
generally be around or below 10 kts out of the E/SE through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  87  71  85 /   0  20   0  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  86  70  85 /   0  30   0  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  88  71  86 /   0  20   0  40
Burnet Muni Airport            66  86  69  83 /   0  10   0  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  96  75  90 /  10   0  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        65  86  70  83 /   0  10   0  30
Hondo Muni Airport             68  91  71  86 /   0  10   0  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  87  70  85 /   0  30   0  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  85  72  84 /   0  40   0  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  87  72  85 /   0  20   0  40
Stinson Muni Airport           70  88  73  86 /   0  20   0  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...04
Aviation...Gale