Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 222331
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
531 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions will prevail tonight through Tuesday night with
FEW-SCT cirrus through the period and FEW altocu developing out west
Tuesday afternoon and spreading east Tuesday night. Northwesterly
winds decreasing rapidly to around 5 KTs or less early this evening,
then turning mainly to easterly most areas on Tuesday, except to
southeasterly 5 to 10 KTs out west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Clear skies continue to prevail across South-Central Texas with
northwest winds around 15 to 20 mph with slightly higher gusts. With
temperatures in the 50s and 60s and dewpoints in the teens and 20s,
humidity values are currently in the 15 to 20 percent range. This is
leading to near critical fire weather conditions across much of the
area. We have had a couple of hot spots on infrared satellite, but
calls to the counties show these have been controlled burns and
therefore there are no active wild fires in our CWA at the present
time. Wind speeds are forecasted to continue to slowly weaken through
the late afternoon and we are not anticipating the need for any Red
Flag Warnings being issued. Otherwise, for tonight, lows will be able
to reach into the 30s with a possible freeze for the Hill Country
and other low-lying areas near the I-35 corridor.

Tomorrow, light winds will prevail and will begin to become southerly
in the western CWA and easterly across the eastern CWA. This will
allow temperatures to be fairly persistent to today`s temperatures
with little warm air advection occurring. Light winds will also
ensure there being no threat for any fire weather conditions in the
area. Lows tomorrow night will also be similar, in the 30s for much
of the area with another possible freeze for the Hill Country.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Another cool day will occur Wednesday afternoon with temperatures
rising into the lower to middle 60s. A shortwave trough will move
through the southern plains on Thursday morning and winds will
quickly shift back from the south by Thursday afternoon. This will
finally bring some low-level moisture back into the region and with
some decent theta-e advection, there is a chance of showers mainly
for the eastern half of the CWA Thursday night and Friday. By
Saturday, a cold front should move through the region keeping the
chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in the forecast. The GFS
is much weaker with the front, has warmer temperatures, and lingers
low QPF in the area through the remainder of the forecast period. The
ECMWF remains stronger with the front which brings in much cooler
temperatures and dries out the forecast beyond Saturday night. Will
keep the forecast dry on Sunday and Monday and stick closer to the
ECMWF than the GFS on the other forecast fields.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              38  66  38  62  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  31  65  33  62  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     33  66  35  62  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            34  63  34  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           34  67  38  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        33  64  32  62  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             33  69  34  65  36 /   0   0   0  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        35  66  35  63  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   37  65  36  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       36  67  36  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           35  67  37  63  38 /   0   0   0  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...LH
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams



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