Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 180507
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1207 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH IS LEAVING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN
ITS WAKE OVER CENTRAL TX...ALLOWING FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THIS COULD ULTIMATELY LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS TO
VLIFR LEVELS IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE INCREASED STABILITY ALOFT
AND THE SLIGHTLY MORE NELY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL DRY THE MOIST
LAYER FROM ABOVE AND BELOW...SO IMPROVEMENTS SHOULD BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AFTER DAYBREAK. MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF IMPROVEMENTS TO
VFR SKIES AROUND MIDDAY IS TYPICAL FOR A MILD SPRING DAY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TX...SO WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THEIR SUGGESTION FOR
THE IMPROVING TRENDS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENCE IN THE 24-30 HOUR RANGE WITH THE RETURN OF LIGHT SE
WINDS COULD MEAN THE MINIMAL LOW CLOUD AND FOG FORECASTS FOR
AUS/SAT COULD BE MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN MODEL AND CURRENT TAF
PROJECTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
FOG DEVELOPING.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE LIGHT RAIN TODAY THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEAR SATURATION AND
FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. EXPECT THIS
DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
TRANSLATES EAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SUBTLE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND SHIFT...
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...EXCEPT ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN PROXIMITY TO A MID-
LEVEL (700-500MB) THETA-E RIDGE AXIS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES BY EARLY SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO TEXAS...THERE IS
A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THIS UPPER TROUGH.
ON SATURDAY...THE BETTER LIFT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NEARBY RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH
THESE AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS MOVING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO. MID-LEVEL LIFT SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND WE/LL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST ON MONDAY. WE/LL HANG ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A DRY AND WARM FORECAST IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL
RIDGING SETS UP. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED...BUT AT THIS TIME THE TROUGH
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO WARRANT A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  79  57  81  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  79  55  81  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  80  57  82  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  77  56  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  82  64  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  77  57  80  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  83  59  82  64 /  20  10  10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  79  56  80  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   57  80  56  81  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  81  58  82  63 /  20  10  10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  82  59  83  64 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05






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