Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 201751
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1251 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BEFORE
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY. MVFR STRATUS WILL BE REDEVELOP IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS SE WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. 15/16Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
MORNING SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SEABREEZE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING UP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND AND MOVING INTO ROUGHLY THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE
AREA...WHICH WORKS WELL WITH LAST FEW HOURS OF HRRR RUNS ON
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ALSO LOOK ON
TRACK...NO SHORT TERM CHANGES PLANNED. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 17Z BEFORE VFR CIGS RETURN.
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUING
WE EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 08Z. DEL RIO MAY
SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 13Z TO 15Z FROM PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGES. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THIS MORNING DRT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS CALM SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...BACK DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...BEFORE PICKING UP
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TOUGH/SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 48 HOURS
OF ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES THEN DROP OFF
AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE PERSISTENT...IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN RATHER SPARCE AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ON ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH PW VALUES RETURNING TO
BELOW 1.8 INCHES TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT           MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT       MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT            MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99





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