Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 300450
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1050 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL OF OUR TERMINALS. WINDS ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND HAVE REDUCED SPEEDS TO
10 TO 15 KTS AT SAN ANTONIO AND DRT AIRPORTS. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CIGS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR IN SAN ANTONIO AND DRT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE LOWER CIGS
WILL NOT MAKE IT TO AUS AND THEY WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO NEAR 20 PERCENT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR AUSTIN AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES WAS ADDED IN
THESE AREAS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION.
REST OF THE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK WITH ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW.

DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WITH A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE NORTH HALF OF THE HILL COUNTRY REGION AND JUST THROUGH
SAN ANTONIO THIS PAST HOUR. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER TOP OF THE
FRONT LEADING TO LIGHT SPRINKLE AND SHOWER GENERATION OVER WEST
TEXAS AND SCATTERED LIGHT ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND ONLY AMOUNT TO A
TRACE OR ONE HUNDREDTH IN MOST LOCATIONS. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE OF RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
/ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING DOWN INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITHIN THE HOUR. NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS THE DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH ARE FORECAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. THE SHALLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...RESULTING IN HIGHS LOWER THAN NORMAL AND RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO PUSH BACK DOWN TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
AREA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO PRODUCE RAIN OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING/SUPPORT REACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND ENHANCE
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
STORM RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO
ONE HALF INCH OVER MOST AREAS WITH SOME SPOTS OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY RECEIVING UP TO AN INCH. BY SUNDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONCENTRATE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN ZONES
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUT WEST. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL AID FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. A DRY AND COOLER
AIRMASS IS FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS DROPPING TO
THE LOWER 30S FOR MONDAY MORNING. A DRY AND COOL START IS IN STORE
FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT FOR RAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. AN
ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO
AN INCH. ANOTHER DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY
AND MARKS AN END OF RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              46  59  45  57  53 /  20  10  20  60  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  59  43  58  52 /  20  10  20  60  70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  58  45  59  55 /  10  10  20  70  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  56  42  53  49 /  20  10  30  70  70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           51  58  46  57  51 /  20  20  60  70  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  57  42  56  50 /  20  10  20  60  70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             48  59  45  59  53 /  10  10  50  70  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  58  44  58  53 /  10  10  20  70  70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  60  46  62  55 /  10  10  20  50  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       48  58  46  59  55 /  10  10  30  70  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  59  46  61  55 /  10  10  30  70  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...FOGARTY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...VAN PELT




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