Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 090450
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1050 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.AVIATION...
Winds continue to gradually decrease and should be 10 to 15 kts
overnight. CIGs will remain VFR through night and morning at the
Austin and San Antonio airports. MVFR CIG will develop at DRT
mid-morning and last until about noon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Wind gusts are gradually decreasing this afternoon with almost all
locations below Wind Advisory criteria. Therefore we have cancelled
the Wind Advisory. Still breezy conditions through the remainder
of the afternoon and evening producing wind chill values in the
mid 20s to low 30s. Some isentropic ascent developing is also
producing some patchy light rain across the far southeast counties
and this will continue into the early evening before shifting
east. Some patchy light sleet was also reported earlier this
afternoon across Kerr Country. Can not rule out some light sleet
reaching the ground through the remainder of the afternoon across
locations farther east in the northern Hill Country, but no
impacts are expected.

Cold tonight with a freeze currently expected near and north of a
Del Rio to San Antonio to Halletsville line. Winds do not
completely diminish overnight and with cloud cover present
overnight low temperatures and freeze potential across southern
CWA is less certain. Currently lows in the mid 20s are forecast
across the Hill Country and upper 20s to low 30s elsewhere near
and north of the above mentioned line. A Freeze Warning has been
issued for those counties that have not had their first freeze of
the season.

Clearing and less wind tomorrow but still cool. Highs in the mid
to upper 40s are forecast. Isentropic ascent develops late Friday
night with clouds returning from south to north. This should
prevent a freeze from occurring Friday morning across the
southern CWA, but areas across the Hill Country and portions of
Central Texas could see another freeze.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The return flow and upglide increases during the day on Saturday
and Saturday night. Patchy light rain or drizzle is possible
along the I-35 corridor Saturday with a slight chance for showers
developing near and east of I-35 Saturday night and Sunday. High
temperatures modify Sunday back into the 60s. A cold front will
move into the area on Monday, with the ECMWF weakest and washing
the front out over the area while the GFS is slightly stronger.
The front does not look to have much impact on temperatures with
highs Monday and Tuesday into upper 60s to low 70s.

Models diverge significantly Wednesday into Thursday, with the
GFS stronger with another front while the ECMWF keeps the front
north of the area. Currently a 20 plus degree spread in Wednesday
and Thursday high temperatures exists between the GFS and ECMWF
MOS. Have sided closer toward the cooler GFS at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              28  46  34  50  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  29  45  33  51  49 /   0   0   0  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     29  46  35  50  48 /   0   0   0  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            26  43  31  48  46 /   0   0   0  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           32  47  32  53  41 /   0   0   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        26  43  32  49  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             29  48  34  49  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        29  45  34  50  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   31  48  35  54  51 /  10   0   0  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       31  47  36  49  47 /   0   0   0  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           32  47  37  49  48 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Friday for the following counties:
Bandera...Bastrop...Bexar...Caldwell...Comal...Edwards...Fayette...
Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...Kinney...Lavaca...Lee...Medina...
Real...Travis...Uvalde...Val Verde...Williamson...Wilson.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams


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