Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 302017
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE BAJA CA PENINSULA WILL SEND ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDS OVER TX TONIGHT WHILE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO REINFORCE NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED LOW CLOUDINESS. MILD
MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOUDS HELPING TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE DAYTIME TUESDAY. EARLIER PROJECTIONS
FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO SHIFT
LATER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER. WILL SHOW LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY
EVENING...MAINLY OUT WEST WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD TAP INTO CAPES
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...BUT THE NAM SOUNDING AND QPF DATA WOULD
SUGGEST A DIFFICULT TIME BREAKING THE CAP IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...EVEN OVER THE OLD FAITHFUL AREAS OF THE BURRO MOUNTAINS.
THUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE CONSIDERED ONLY FOR A FEW POSSIBLE
ELEVATED CELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AS STATED ABOVE...MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED DOWNWARD ON QPF AND
BACKWARD ON TIMING OF THE TUE-WED DISTURBANCE. THE COMPARISON OF
QPF SHOWS THE ECMWF AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN PRODUCER...BUT LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF THE NAM/GFS MODELS ARE PREFERRED WITHOUT SOME MESOSCALE
FEATURE TO LOCK ONTO. DELAYED RAIN AND CLOUDS AFFECTS THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...WHILE THURSDAY REMAINS A GOOD
BET FOR THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
HOLD IN LOW CLOUDS LONGER INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY AND A COLD FRONT IS
DEPICTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO LEAK INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
EARLY...THEN MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AND SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE
AREA LATE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS AND MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOW GOOD RAIN CHANCES WITH A POOLING OF ELEVATED MOISTURE OVER
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND PROLONGED SW FLOW ALOFT. THUS CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS AND COOL DAYTIME TEMPS RESUME FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              65  79  64  79  64 /  10  10  30  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  78  63  78  63 /  10  10  30  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     63  79  63  79  62 /  10  10  30  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  79  62  79  63 /  10  10  30  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  80  63  86  61 /  10  20  40  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  79  63  78  63 /  10  10  30  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             63  79  62  80  62 /  10  10  40  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  78  64  79  63 /  10  10  30  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  81  64  79  65 /  10  10  30  40  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  79  64  78  63 /  10  10  40  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  79  65  79  63 /  10  10  40  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18


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