Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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664
FXUS64 KEWX 280746
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
246 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
A mostly clear and warm day in store today. H5 ridging will be
taking shape over the central US in response to a deep closed low
over the Ohio Valley and another closed low off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest. Low level moisture continues to be quite dry
due to the recent cold front passage thus skies should be mostly
clear today allowing highs to rise a few degrees from yesterday,
getting into the 80s for much of the CWA.

Another re-enforcing dry cold front will be making its way
through the CWA Thursday morning keeping high temperatures in the
upper 70s and low 80s in the northern half of the CWA. With
strong surface high pressure building over north Texas and
Oklahoma, a pretty tight pressure gradient will be set up behind
the front and models are showing some enhancement to the low level
wind fields through the day. As a result...bumped up wind/wind
gust grids from the Superblend. Should see some gusts of 25
mph...and perhaps greater during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The aformentioned cold front Thursday will bring our first real
CWA wide cool morning overnight Thursday and Friday morning.
Guidance values range from the low 50s to the mid 50s for the Hill
Country and upper 50s/low 60s elsewhere. With wind fields
subsiding overnight and clear skies allowing for a good
radiational cooling set up, wouldn`t be surprised to see the
ensemble minimums being reached at some places, especially on the
Plateau and Hill Country. Also, dewpoints look to fall into the
40s and low 50s resulting in dare we say a brisk morning in the
Kerrville/Fredericksburg/Rocksprings areas.

Temperatures should begin to rise over the weekend as flow returns
southerly and southeasterly. By Monday, highs are expected to rise
back into the mid to upper 80s and possibly 90s by the middle of
next week. But this warming period shouldn`t be too long lived as
another upper level system should kick out another stong cold
front by late Wednesday or early Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              86  63  82  59  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  62  82  57  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     85  63  84  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            84  60  79  56  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           85  66  87  62  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  61  80  56  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             87  64  87  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        85  63  83  58  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   85  63  84  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       86  65  84  59  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           87  67  86  61  82 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...TB3



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