Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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929
FXUS64 KEWX 201216
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
616 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Rain and isolated thunderstorms continue to push off to the east,
slightly ahead of schedule, with the upper level trough now along
the Rio Grande Valley. The threat for additional heavy rains has
ended for this event. Have lowered or removed POPs along and west of
I-35 for this morning and kept POPs only along Highway 77 for this
afternoon. Have retrended the sensible weather grids through midday.
Remainder of the South Central Texas forecast is on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
-RA/TSRA will move east of our area by midday, although have kept
VCSH mention at the I-35 TAF sites through 15z. A mix of LIFR to VFR
CIGs will become all VFR by mid morning as clouds erode off to the
east later this morning into afternoon. Winds will generally be 10
KTs or less, except NW 10 to 15 KTs along the Rio Grande.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
An upper level trough currently near the Big Bend moves across our
area today. Ahead of the trough, a band of showers and thunderstorms
producing moderate to heavy rains with a trailing area of light to
moderate rains and isolated thunderstorms gradually moves off to the
east. The heaviest rains will be near the Coastal Plains to along the
Highway 77 corridor during the predawn hours with an additional 1 to
3 inches of rain expected, causing some minor flooding. Elsewhere,
additional rainfall amounts of less than one half inch are expected.
Clouds will erode from west to east. Tonight into Tuesday, the upper
level trough slowly closes off and moves to the lower Mississippi
Valley/Central Gulf Coast while an upper level ridge builds into
Western Texas. Fair weather is expected. Above normal temperatures
will continue.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
The upper level ridge transits across Texas Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures warm back up to well above normal due to southwesterly
flow off the Mexican Plateau. An upper level trough moves out into
the Plains States Thursday night into Friday dragging a weak cold
front into our area. Moisture recovery may allow for some clouds with
its passage, but no rain. Surface high builds into our area in its
wake and then moves off to the east on Saturday. Temperatures fall,
yet remain above normal. Another upper level trough and cold front
approach with deepening moisture leading to isolated showers Sunday.
The trough and front move across our area Sunday Night into Monday.
The GFS indicates another potential squall line, while all other
models a much less bullish.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  54  78  52  82 /  30   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  52  78  49  82 /  40   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  53  79  50  83 /  30   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  50  75  49  82 /  20   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  51  82  50  87 /  -    0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  51  77  49  82 /  30   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             76  49  80  48  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  53  78  50  82 /  40   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  55  77  52  80 /  70  10  -    0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  54  79  51  83 /  20   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77  53  82  51  85 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...04
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams



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