Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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537
FXUS64 KEWX 301141
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
641 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/

A weak sfc pressure gradient will make for scattered areas of low
cigs with a few dropping to IFR levels through 14z. Mixing should
take all TAF sites to VFR by 16z with afternoon winds mostly below
12 knots. A repeat of this morning is expected late tonight with
light winds leading to intermittent low ceilings.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
A TUTT trough over the Lower Rio Grande Valley drifts northwest
and becomes centered over Southern Texas later today and lingers
through Sunday as a mid/upper level shear axis shifts northwest
across northern and southwestern Texas. The shear axis lays
between Subtropical Ridges centered over the Four Corners region
and over northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Also, an MCV along the
Rio Grande drifts to the west across the Serranias del Burro of
Mexico. Finally, the seabreeze moves inland each day. The features
aloft serve to enhance the seabreeze to generate isolated showers
and thunderstorms across areas near the Coastal Plains today and
again on Sunday. Models show a slight drying trend and expect the
showers and thunderstorms to dissipate before reaching the I-35
corridor by early evening. Also for this afternoon, isolated
showers and thunderstorms are possible across Maverick county
near the Rio Grande due proximity to the MCV. Due to a warming
trend of daytime temperatures and a lingering humid airmass, areas
east of I-35 may see heat indices of 105 to 107 for an hour or two
during the mid afternoon.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
Early into the middle of next week, the TUTT trough/shear axis
quickly fills as the Subtropical Ridges build toward each other
and then center over Texas. This means no rain chances for Monday
through Wednesday as the airmass dries and becomes strongly
subsident. Late in the week, the Subtropical Ridge shifts north a
little allowing somewhat deeper moisture back into Southern and
Central Texas. This enables the seabreeze to generate showers and
thunderstorms for areas near the Coastal Plains and maintained
slight chance POPS for Thursday and Friday. Heat indices will
reach the 105 to 108 range each afternoon.

Just beyond this forecast, for next weekend, all models are
showing some type of tropical development from the wave currently
well east of the Lesser Antilles. Recent runs show a track west
to the Yucatan, the Bay of Campeche/southwestern Gulf of Mexico
and into Mexico. The previous run of the ECMWF showed the system
moving into Southern Texas. As a result, there is uncertainty. The
strength and location the Subtropical Ridge axis will determine
its track.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Rio Grande
Plains Monday through Friday during the afternoon hours. Relative
humidities of 20 to 30 percent and southeasterly wind of 10 to 15
mph are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  77  98  77 100 /  -   -   -    0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  75  97  75  99 /  -   -   -    0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  75  98  75 100 /  -   -   -    0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            96  75  97  75  98 /  -   -   -    0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  77  98  78 101 /  10  -   -    0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  76  98  77  99 /  -   -   -    0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             95  74  97  74  98 /  -   -   -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  75  97  75  99 /  -   -   -    0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  76  97  77  98 /  10  -   10  -   -
San Antonio Intl Airport       96  77  96  76  98 /  -   -   -    0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           97  76  98  76 100 /  -   -   -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...04



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