Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 012033
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  97  77  96  75 /   0  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  97  74  96  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  77  94  74 /   0  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  95  76  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  94  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  96  75  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  96  76  96  76 /  10  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  77  96  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  98  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




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