Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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NYC019-031-033-089-VTC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-
027-052000-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /8/...

THIS IS THE EIGHTH FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE 2014 WINTER/SPRING
SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY THROUGH THE WINTER
AND SPRING BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON VERMONT
TO SUMMARIZE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT AND BREAK UP OF
RIVER ICE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

...OVERVIEW...

THE LONG TERM SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK IS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT.

SNOW PACK ACROSS THE REGION IS ABOVE NORMAL...AND RIVER ICE
REMAINS EXTENSIVE. RAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...APRIL 4TH AND
5TH... COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
RIVERS AND POTENTIAL ICE MOVEMENT. MORE RAIN EXPECTED THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...APRIL 7TH...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO RIVER RISES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ICE
MOVEMENT AND FLOODING.

...SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR NORMAL WITH MELTING OF SNOW PACK
RESULTING IN VARYING SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY HAD SNOW DEPTHS OF LESS THAN SIX INCHES. ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND OTHER VALLEY FLOORS BELOW 1500 FEET THERE ARE
ONE TO TWO FOOT DEPTHS. SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH
ELEVATION...TWO TO FOUR FEET DEEP FROM 1500 TO 2500 FOOT
ELEVATIONS AND FOUR TO OVER SIX FEET DEEP ABOVE 2500 FEET. THESE
SNOW DEPTHS ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...OR THE AMOUNT OF LIQUID WATER HELD IN THE
SNOW PACK...WAS ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. VALLEY FLOORS...INCLUDING
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELD FOUR INCHES OR LESS OF LIQUID WATER.
FROM 1000 TO 2500 FEET ELEVATION THE SNOW PACK CONTAINED FOUR TO
EIGHT INCHES OF WATER. ABOVE 2500 FEET EIGHT INCHES TO A FOOT OF
WATER WAS HELD IN THE SNOW PACK. MOUNTAIN PEAKS ABOVE 3000 FEET
CONTAINED A FOOT TO 18 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER.

WITH SNOW DENSITIES OF 25 PERCENT OR GREATER...THE SNOW PACK HAS
A HIGH WATER CONTENT FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

...RIVER AND SOIL CONDITIONS...

NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAPS SHOW VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK WITH NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS. HOWEVER...RIVER
FLOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
ARE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN REGION RIVER
FLOWS ARE ABOVE NORMAL FROM WARMER TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN
SNOWMELT.

SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS RIVERS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE LOST MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THEIR ICE COVER.
MAIN STEM AND NORTHERN RIVERS CONTINUE TO HAVE THICK ICE
COVER...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO FEET THICK.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

A PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND BRING MOSTLY RAIN WITH AREAS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...APRIL 4TH AND 5TH. WITH SNOW DENSITIES OF 25 PERCENT
AND GREATER FOR VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO AND DURING THIS SYSTEM...ICE
MOVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY RIVER RISES.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF AND BRINGING MOSTLY
RAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK STARTING APRIL 7TH.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONTINUED SNOWMELT WILL CAUSE RIVER RISES AND
ICE MOVEMENT... INCREASING THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID
APRIL 11 TO 17 CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID APRIL...THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AWAY AT MELTING THE WATER LADEN SNOW PACK.

...SUMMARY...

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL SNOW PACK/SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...AND PERSISTENT ICE
COVER. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THIS WEEKENDS STORM.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH SEVERAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THESE AREAS AS MOSTLY RAIN EVENTS. THIS WOULD
ADD FURTHER TO THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS WITHIN THE SNOW PACK...
INCREASING RUNOFF AND THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY
APRIL 17.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE ACCESS CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND FORECASTS ON OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV.

$$

KGM







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