419
FZAK80 PAFC 132345
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
345 PM AKDT Monday 13 May 2024

FORECAST VALID...Saturday 18 May 2024

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High.

SYNOPSIS...A large low pressure system over Kamchatka will
strengthen and move into the western Bering Sea on Tuesday, then
into the Chukchi Sea Wednesday afternoon. Another weaker system will
follow the same track through Saturday.


The main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to 59 21N 170 59W to
59 35N 175 57W to 60 42N 179 6W and continues in Russian waters.
The ice edge is open water.


From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from
near Quinhagak to 70 nm southeast of Saint Matthew Island to 100 nm
southwest of Saint Matthew Island to 275 nm southwest of Gambell and
continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Winds will change to predominately southerly.
Shorefast ice will be vulnerable to break off, primarily near the
northern edge through the week.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-
PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-
PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Southerly winds will develop through the week.
Winds will be southeasterly across the Wales to Shishmaref coastline
where shorefast ice will be vulnerable to break-off. Expect polynyas
to form across much of the northwest coastline.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-
PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-
PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-
PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-
PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-
PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-
PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-
PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

Ice covered.

PKZ412-Bering Sea 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
PKZ414-Bering Sea East of 171W-
PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-
PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-
PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-
PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-
PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ766-Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is low. Southerly winds will take hold over the next week which will
put the ice pack into a period of retreat. Overall the ice edge will
retreat 40 to 50 nm to the north. Polynyas on the south side of
coastlines will fill in with mostly marginal ice as the thinning
pack moves back to the north. North facing coastlines of Saint
Lawrence Island and Norton Sound will be at risk of shorefast break-
off with the moderate southerly winds through the week. Expect
polynyas to open in these areas.

Shorefast ice from the Kuskokwim Delta may quickly degrade as
southerly winds bring water to the fast portions of the ice. The
Yukon Delta has not shown signs of much degradation as of yet, but
is expected within the next couple of weeks as seasonal warming
continues.

&&
Lawson