541
FXUS61 KALY 051948
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
348 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
With continued cool conditions, steady rain will taper
to showers for this evening into tonight. Clouds will break for some
sunshine on Monday with milder temperatures returning to the region.
Warm and sunny weather is expected on Tuesday before the threat for
showers returns Wednesday into the latter portion of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 348 PM EDT...A slow moving frontal boundary is located
over Ontario and across the Great Lakes. Ahead of this storm
system, decent isentropic lift thanks to a south-southwest low
level jet of 30-40 kts is allowing for a steady area of light to
moderate rainfall over much of the region. The steadiest and
heaviest rain is in a band from the mid Hudson Valley northeast
through the eastern Capital Region, Taconics and Berkshires and
into southern VT. Through the the early evening hours, this band
of steadiest rainfall will be slowly shifting eastward into New
England.

As the steadiest rain starts to exit off to the east this
evening, precip will start to become more showery in nature,
thanks to the best isentropic lift shifting northeast of the
area. Still, additional showers are expected for late this
evening and into the overnight, as our area will be still
downstream of the slow moving frontal boundary to the west, as
the moist southerly low level flow, aided by the cyclonic flow
aloft, will continue to allow for additional showers. In
addition, some patchy fog may start to develop, especially for
sheltered areas for the overnight hours. In total, some areas
will have seen over an inch of rain in total (especially within
the Capital Region, parts of the Mohawk Valley and southern
Adirondacks), although no hydro impacts expected to recent dry
weather and rainfall rates being manageable.

Temps have been steady all day in the mid 40s to low 50s. These
temps will continue into the overnight, with not much variation
expected due to the widespread cloud cover. Although winds have
been gusty from the south through the day, they will gradually
start to come down through the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface front will finally be crossing the area from west to
east during the day on Monday. A few additional spotty showers
can`t be ruled out with the front (mainly eastern and southern
areas), but moisture will become limited, as the high PWAT air
will have shifted off to the east. While all areas will start
the day cloudy, increasing sun is expected by afternoon as the
front crosses through and winds switch to the west. It may take
until later in the day for the sun to finally break out for
southeastern areas. Temps should rise fairly quickly once the
sun breaks out, as warm temps should still allow for a mild
afternoon, with highs in valley areas back into the low to mid
70s (60s for the high terrain).

Better clearing is expected for Monday night with quiet weather.
Lows will fall into the mid to upper 40s with the fairly clear
skies and light winds thanks to nearby surface high pressure.

A warm and sunny day in expected on Tuesday thanks to high
pressure. With plenty of sun expected and 850 hpa temps of +5 to
+8 C, highs should reach into the 70s once again for many valley
areas. While Tuesday evening will start off dry, clouds will be
increasing and a threat for showers will arrive by the late
night hours, as the next shortwave starts to approach from the
Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected through much of the long term
period.

Area of low pressure will be tracking close to the area on
Wednesday. Recent model runs have speed the timing of this
feature up slightly, so the best chance of rain may be from
Tuesday night into the first half of the day on Wednesday. Some
instability may still be present (especially southern areas), so
can`t rule out some thunder, but still unclear if there will be
a threat for stronger storms, especially considering the earlier
timing of this system. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy and
more humid for Wednesday with the showers and possible t-storms.
Temps still look to reach the 60s and 70s.

There should be a brief dry stretch behind this initial system,
so much of Wed night looks dry into start of Thursday, but
another system will be impacting the region for the late week.
Have gone with high chc to likely POPs for Thurs/Fri as another
slow moving shortwave moves across the area with some additional
showers. Instability looks lower than Wednesday, but a stray
rumble can`t be ruled out. Highs look mainly in the 60s with
lows in the 40s for Thursday into Friday.

Over the weekend, there are some differences in the models
regarding the next approaching storm trough. There could be a
period of ridging allowing for some dry and quiet weather before
another round of showers heads towards the area. The timing is
still uncertain, so will keep the chance for showers for both
Saturday and Sunday, although it`s possible some dry weather
could occur. Temps could be a little below normal with highs in
the lower 60s, although it will depend on the exact coverage of
clouds/sun.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...A frontal system continues to impact the
region this afternoon with persistent, widespread rain
continuing to impact the four ALY terminals. Conditions are
currently MVFR at KALB/KGFL/KPSF with lowered ceiling heights
and/or restricted visibility, while KPOU is IFR.

While rain has shown some degree of lessening in spatial spread,
expectation remains for consistent precipitation to continue
for the next several hours before reducing to mere showers just
before or just after 00z. TEMPO and prevailing groups were
included to account for the continuation of MVFR conditions or a
brief worsening to IFR conditions (lowered ceilings) through
the next 6-9 hours in response to showers passing through the
terminals.

Once the rain tapers off, MVFR ceilings will generally remain
prevalent except possibly at KALB where thermal profiles showed
some drying in the low levels which could allow ceilings to rise
to VFR levels. It is possible that with the high amount of
moisture trapped in the low levels that some patchy fog could
impact the terminals during the overnight period. However, with
confidence low in this element of the forecast due to the
expectation of persistence in mostly cloudy skies and a light
breeze, maintained MVFR to IFR conditions.

Winds will remain breezy this afternoon, especially at KALB and
KPSF, with sustained speeds ranging from 8-12 kt and gusts up to
20-25 kt (KALB/KPSF). Speeds will decrease overnight, ranging
from about 2-5 kt through the remainder of the 18z TAF period.
Winds will remain primarily out of the south throughout the
period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Gant