755
FXUS64 KAMA 030847
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
347 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Low clouds should dissipate from west to east today.  As the low
clouds give way to sunshine, instability will increase. A minor
upper level short wave may also move across the Panhandles during
afternoon heating.  Therefore, some showers and thunderstorms may
form given the added instability, lift, and moisture.

A line of better organized thunderstorms is expected to move through
the Panhandles overnight along a cold front.  Models are in
disagreement on just how widespread the thunderstorms will be
overnight.  There are a few models that believe that the line of
storms will produce an outflow just as it moves into the Oklahoma
Panhandle.  This outflow would then move out ahead of the storms
effectively cutting off the inflow into the storms and causing them
to weaken.  At any rate, there could be some severe storms both
today and overnight. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats.  But certainly can not rule out a tornado.

On Saturday and Saturday night, more showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop in association with upslope flow behind the
front and an upper level disturbance.  The atmosphere may have to
have time to recover from any storms that move through tonight, so
the better chance of rain may come Saturday night.

Highs today are expected to be in the 70`s with a few 80`s in the
west.  Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the mid 60`s to lower
70`s.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Sunday and Monday look to be the more impactful days of the long
term forecast. Rain showers and thunderstorms may continue off and
on throughout the day on Sunday. The next upper level system looks
to remain off to the north on Monday and the return of strong west
winds will bring fire weather concerns. The rest of next work week
looks to feature near to above average temperatures and dry
conditions.

A shortwave trough will continue moving across the region on
Sunday and should be east of the CWA by Sunday evening. The lift
provided by the wave should aid in developing scattered showers
and storms on Sunday. Cloud cover will decrease from west to east
during the afternoon hours and highs should be around average on
Sunday. The next H500 trough will be stronger but looks to remain
north of the area. The base of the trough looks to move over
portions of southeast Colorado into western Kansas. This would
leave most of the Panhandles on the dry and windy side. The only
exception may be the far east which could have a few showers or
storms develop later in the day. Gusty west winds are likely on
Monday and dry air at the surface will lead to fire weather
conditions for areas that have not received rainfall to aid in
greening up. Temperatures should also increase into the upper 70s
to upper 80s across the area.

Mainly zonal flow looks to prevail Tuesday through the remainder
of the extended forecast. Breezy winds are possible each of the
days along with temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Model guidance
hints that a cold front may move across the region late next week
which could bring cooler temperatures to the area.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

IFR and MVFR cigs will continue to spread northwest to cover all
of the TAF sites overnight. These low cigs will dissipate at DHT
and GUY around mid day, but may take until later in the afternoon
to clear at AMA. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated
through this TAF cycle, so have not mentioned them in this
forecast. East to southeast winds will be common through this
forecast at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                74  51  68  51 /  30  40  40  70
Beaver OK                  79  49  67  48 /  20  80  20  40
Boise City OK              75  43  66  45 /  30  40  10  30
Borger TX                  78  52  71  53 /  20  50  30  60
Boys Ranch TX              78  50  70  51 /  30  40  20  60
Canyon TX                  74  51  68  51 /  30  40  40  70
Clarendon TX               72  54  69  54 /  40  40  60  80
Dalhart TX                 75  44  67  46 /  20  40  10  40
Guymon OK                  76  46  67  46 /  20  70  10  40
Hereford TX                79  52  71  51 /  30  30  40  70
Lipscomb TX                78  52  67  51 /  20  70  40  60
Pampa TX                   74  53  68  52 /  20  50  40  60
Shamrock TX                75  55  70  54 /  40  50  70  80
Wellington TX              76  55  72  54 /  40  70  70  80

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...15