Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 160646
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
246 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...Rain/snow chances and breezy this weekend...

.DISCUSSION...Increasingly gusty southwest winds early this morning
will turn west-northwesterly today behind a passing cold front.
Scattered rain showers will be the rule today before mixing with
snow this evening through Sunday...most numerously over northwest
lower Michigan with localized accumulations of a few inches possible
by the end of the weekend. High temps fall back into the 30s for Sunday
into the start of next week.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-162015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
246 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....44-49...except 37-42 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (762).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers until 2400. Scattered snow showers.
Min Temperature.....26-31.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 6 percent drier along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (290).
Mixing Height.......1400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of snow
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....32-37.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent...except 58-63 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1034).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 24 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-162015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
246 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1007).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Scattered snow
                    showers and isolated rain showers until
                    2400Isolated snow showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....26-31.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (294).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Max Temperature.....34-39.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1170).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-162015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
246 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers until 1200Isolated rain showers after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....45-50...except 38-43 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier...except 1 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (925).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 2400. Scattered snow showers.
Min Temperature.....24-29...except 33-38 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........75-80 percent...except 62-67 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier...except 11 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (314).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of snow showers.
Max Temperature.....31-36.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 1 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1034).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .


$$

MIZ031>033-162015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
246 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers until 1200Isolated rain showers after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1425).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 2400. Scattered snow showers.
Min Temperature.....25-30.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........75-80 percent...except 59-64 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier...except 21 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 15 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (434).
Mixing Height.......2100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of snow
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....31-36.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 15 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1056).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-162015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
246 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1421).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 2400. Isolated snow showers.
Min Temperature.....25-30.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........78-83 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (362).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) until 1200, then
                    cloudy (85-95 percent).
Max Temperature.....34-39.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1197).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. EAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

$$

MJG


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