338
FNUS73 KAPX 291558
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Fairview Opening RX...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1158 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Recent rains will keep afternoon humidity values around the 40s
Tuesday afternoon. Breezy west to north west 20ft winds around 10
to 15 mph with occasional gusts will subside Tuesday evening and
turn south overnight. A cold front will likely pass through
Wednesday morning brining slight chances for brief rain early,
however drier air will likely move in behind causing afternoon
humidities Wednesday to dip into the 40s or 30s. Breezy west to
north west winds right behind the front.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........45 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 7 to 13 mph with gusts up to 18 mph.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......2900-4800 ft AGL.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Fair to good (493.0-740.0).

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........57  58  60  67  69  65  61  57
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............55  57  58  59  60  61  61  61
RH..............74  67  62  60  55  52  50  45
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..7   10  10  10  10  13  13  13
20 ft wind gust.0   0   15  15  15  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...2.9 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.7 4.8 4.6
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.17  16  15  15  16  16  15  14
Vrate kt-ft.....493 566 561 625 706 740 719 630
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 12 mph shifting to the south 5 to 8
                    mph overnight.
Mixing height.......2000-3800 ft AGL decreasing to 400-1500 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (21.0-460.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........52  47  42  33  23  14  21  27  34  36  38  40
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............59  58  56  53  51  48  46  44  42  40  40  40
RH..............52  55  59  65  69  77  84  91  96  100 100 100
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..10  5   5   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   3
20 ft wind gust.15  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 2.9 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   NW  NW  W   SW  S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.12  10  8   7   6   6   5   5   5   6   7   8
Vrate kt-ft.....460 285 161 104 73  55  35  24  21  25  35  49
Ventrate Cat....FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........33 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 10 mph early in
                    the morning, then shifting to the west and increasing
    to 10 to 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 18 mph shifting to the west 20 to 25
                    mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-2400 ft AGL increasing to 3900-5700 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (55.0-430.0) increasing to good to
                    very good (756.0-1238.0) in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........51     73     69     61     49     31
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............40     45     53     61     68     71
RH..............99     89     78     62     45     34
20 ft wind dir..S      S      S      SW     SW     W
20 ft wind spd..6      6      6      10     10     15
20 ft wind gust.0      0      10     15     15     20
Mix hgt (ft)....600    700    700    2400   5100   5700
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
Transport wind..S 9    S 10   S 14   SW 18  W 21   W 22
Vrate kt-ft.....55     77     105    430    1047   1238
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   VYGD   VYGD

$$
Forecaster...ELD
Requested by...Travis Wiltse
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412690.0/APX
.DELDT 04/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL travis.a.wiltse@usda.gov