Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 260719
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
319 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry, quiet and mild weather continues across the region
today. A frontal system brings more clouds and showers to the area
tonight through Wednesday night or Thursday morning. It turns dry
and sunny for Friday, but it will be breezy and cool behind a cold
front. The upcoming weekend features seasonable temperatures with a
chance for some scattered rain showers on Saturday, with dry and
mostly sunny weather returning on Sunday.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

315 AM Update

Our area will be in between weather system much of the day today.
There are high clouds gradually spreading in from the west, with a
marine layer and low level stratus clouds impeding from the east.
The low clouds are forecast to impact mainly the poconos east of the
Wyoming valley, and southern Catskills this morning into the early
afternoon hours. Eventually these lower level clouds may spread
further NW toward the Twin Tiers and portions of Central NY by late
afternoon and evening. The high cirrus clouds remain thin this
morning, with filtered sunshine expected, but gradually thicken up
later in the afternoon. The overall story for today will be increasing
clouds, slightly breezy southeast winds at 8-15 mph, but mild
temperatures are forecast well into the 50s for most locations.

By evening some light rain showers start to spread into the region
from the west along an occluding frontal boundary. Scattered rain
showers continue overnight, with the highest PoPs and QPF across
Central NY where up to two-tenths of an inch or rain could fall. It
will be mild overnight, with the breezy southeast winds
continuing...overnight lows only dip down into the upper 30s to
lower 40s over the region.

There is then some uncertainty in forecast specifics during the day
on Wednesday. There are differences in the amount and timing of rain
in the latest hi-res CAMs (HRRR, RAP, 3km NAM). Used a blend of the
all of these and the latest NBM to place PoPs and QPF as best as
possible. Right now, it looks like there will be some dry time, and
also periods of rain...again specific hours for this remains uncertain.
The highest chances for rain appear to be along and east of the
I-81 corridor where likely PoPs were continued in the forecast.
Back to the west, it fades to just chance PoPs over the Finger
Lakes and Central Southern Tier. QPF amounts are again ranging
from a few hundreths to perhaps two-tenths of an inch over the
Catskills/Poconos during the day. With the breaks in the
rainfall and perhaps even a few, occasional breaks in the
overcast, temperatures still warm up into the mid-50s to lower
60s...this is about 5 to 10 degrees above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
305 AM Update...

A cold front will slowly push through the region Wednesday night and
Thursday. This front will bring rain showers to the region. During
the overnight hours Wednesday night, snow could mix in with rain in
the higher elevations where temperatures will be cooler. Southerly
flow will advect moisture northward along the coast Thursday. As a
result, chances for showers will increase across NEPA, the
Catskills, and far eastern portions of the Southern Tier. There is
some uncertainty with where the moisture axis sets up. The GFS and
NAM brings the moisture axis into our region but the ECMWF is much
farther east with it. For this update, a blend of the previous
forecast, NBM, and WPC guidance was used for QPF amounts. Showers
move out Thursday night, though there is a low chance that some
lingering shows could result in a dusting of snow in the higher
elevations of the Catskills.

Temperatures Wednesday night will range form the low 30s to mid 40s
with the warmest temps being in NEPA. Highs on Thursday will only be
in the 40s. Then with cooler air filling in behind the front, temps
fall below freezing for most of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
305 AM Update...

The end of the week will be quiet as high pressure will be present.
A weak system will pass southwest of the region this weekend, but
will be close enough for some spotty showers, mainly late Saturday
and into the overnight hours. Rain will be the main ptype but there
may also be rain/snow mix or just snow during the overnight hours.
While some guidance has a lingering shower or two early Sunday,
conditions will dry out as high pressure takes back control. The
start of next week will also be quiet, though the next system may be
knocking on our door by late Monday. There are timing differences
between model guidance with this system, so NBM guidance was favored
for now. Highs this period will be in the 40s and 50s with Monday
looking to be the warmest day during this period. Overnight
temperatures will be 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
115 AM Update

VFR conditions prevail areawide through at least 12-15z Tuesday
morning. The marine layer is slowing down, but still looks to
bring MVFR CIGs to AVP by around 15z and lasting through the
day. There could be occasional MVFR Fuel Alt conditions here as
well heading into the afternoon. Then, Fuel Alt CIGs look to
prevail at AVP heading into Tuesday evening.

The marine layer is trending weaker with it`s westward push
later today. Therefore, BGM is on the edge between VFR
conditions and scattered MVFR cloud deck after about 15z; it`s
possible these MVFR clouds could be bkn at times, with a Ceiling
developing, but not enough confidence to show this in the taf
for BGM at this time. Eventually cloud bases and CIGs do come
down to MVFR by 21-22z this afternoon at BGM, then falling to
Fuel Alt by 27/00z and perhaps IFR after 27/02-03z as the marine
layer cloud thicken and lower after sunset.

ELM, RME and ITH are VFR through the day on Tuesday, with the
marine layer clouds merging with incoming clouds from the west
and forming an MVFR CIG after 27/00z; perhaps becoming Fuel Alt
late in this taf period here (after 27/03-04z).

SYR looks to stay VFR for much of this taf period, with MVFR
restrictions becoming possible at the tail end of this taf
period, around 27/05z...along with a few rain showers too.


Low level wind shear is expected for the rest of the overnight
period at ELM and ITH, with southeast winds 35-40 kts at 2k ft
agl...and variable winds at the surface; especially at ELM.

Elsewhere, winds will be generally 8-20 kts out of the east-
southeast for much of the taf period.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers, especially during the day on
Wednesday.

Thursday...Mainly VFR west. Restrictions possible in rain/mist
for AVP, BGM and perhaps RME. (Low to moderate confidence)

Friday...VFR (High confidence)

Saturday...Mainly VFR (Moderate confidence)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...BTL/KL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...AJG/JTC


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