910
FNUS73 KBIS 090946
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Oster NPAM RX...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
446 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies can be expected across the fire area today.
A light north wind increasing to 7 to 14 mph is also expected today. Humidity values
this afternoon should hover around 40 percent. After a few isolated showers this
evening, a weak front will push through tonight. This will bring dry and breezier
conditions on Friday. Humidity values could lower to around 34 percent, while
northwest winds around 20 mph gusting to near 30 mph are forecast. Mainly clear
skies and seasonable temperatures are also expected for Friday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny to partly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 10 mph becoming north northwest
                    7 to 14 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (96800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (132700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........48  42  36  41  47  43  45
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  0   0   10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............61  63  65  66  67  68  67
RH..............51  48  43  43  40  39  42
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..11  12  12  12  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  17  17  18  17
Mix hgt (kft)...5.7 6.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Haines index....3   3   3   4   4   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..97  110 122 126 130 133 126

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly to mostly cloudy then becoming clear
                    near sunrise. Slight chance of rain showers
                    in the evening.
CWR.................Less than 5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 12 mph increasing to
                    10 to 15 mph after 0000.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (117600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (22500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night decreasing to poor (4900 knot-ft) in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........44     49     49     49     37     14
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Chc of pcpn (%).10     20     20     10     10     0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............67     63     56     55     51     48
RH..............42     52     69     74     77     74
20 ft wind......N 12   N 9    NW 7   NW 10  NW 11  NW 11
20 ft wind gust.15     13     11     14     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....6900   2000   400    500    400    400
Transport wind..N 20   N 13   NW 13  N 15   NW 16  NW 16
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..118    23     5      6      6      6

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 12 to 22 mph with afternoon
                    gusts around 27 mph.
Mixing height.......8400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 30
                    mph late in the morning, with a few higher gusts.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (54100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (125400
                    knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to
                    excellent (201500 knot-ft) in the afternoon
                    late in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........7         23        32        27
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............45        54        63        66
RH..............73        54        39        34
20 FT wind......NW 11G17  NW 15G22  NW 17G24  NW 17G24
Mix hgt (ft)....500       1300      6500      8300
Transport wind..NW 17     N 21      NW 29     NW 28
Haines index....4         5         5         5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..7         23        163       201

$$
Forecaster...ANGLIN
Requested by...Dustin Mireles
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413564.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Dustin_mireles@fws.gov