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000
FXUS64 KBMX 140053
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
753 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2024

This afternoon.

The forecast area is positioned between longwave troughing off
the Mid Atlantic Coast and amplified longwave ridging over much of
the Plains. Surface low pressure was analyzed across Southeast
Canada while surface high pressure was centered across the Deep
South while lower pressure was located across the High Plains.

Dry conditions will continue to persist with only some high
clouds moving east over portions of the west and southwest
counties. Winds are lighter than previous days with surface high
pressure nearby, from the northwest at 5-10 mph. Highs today will
range from the mid 70s far east to the low 80s far west and
southwest.

Tonight.

Mid-level ridging will build further east over the area through
tonight while surface high pressure becomes centered across the
Northern Florida Peninsula.

Expect mostly clear skies overnight with only some high clouds
over the southwest portion of the area. Some patchy fog will
remain possible before sunrise, especially near rivers and lakes.
Winds will become more southwest through the night but speeds will
be light from 3-5 mph. Lows will range from the upper 40s east to
the low 50s west.

Sunday.

A deep upper low will move east over much of California and
Nevada during the day on Sunday. Mid-level ridging over much of
the Plains will amplify further in response with a west to
northwest flow aloft over our area. Some models depict a shortwave
moving southeast in the flow pattern over the Mid-South and
Tennessee Valley Regions by the afternoon but vertical profile
moisture values are expected to be too dry to support anything
other than clouds that will result in partly cloudy conditions
over much of the area during the day. Winds will remain from the
southwest from 5-10 mph. High temperatures will be in the lower
80s areawide.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2024

Long term forecast is on track this afternoon. Only needed minor
adjustments to temperature trends and rain chances, as two weak
fronts impact the area Tuesday night into Wednesday and again
Thursday into Friday.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2024

An upper-level ridge will move across the Deep South Monday and
Tuesday, providing dry and warm conditions to the region.
Afternoon temperatures should reach the low to mid 80s each day.
As a trough in the Plains moves toward the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley, the tail end of a weakening front should arrive late
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could bring scattered showers
and thunderstorms to our northern and central counties.

Another trough is expected to move across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region late Thursday into Friday. Much of Thursday
should remain dry, but rain chances will increase Thursday evening
and Friday as a front approaches from the northwest.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Surface high
pressure centered south of the area will slowly move eastward
through Sunday. A few mid and high clouds will drift overhead, but
mostly clear conditions will dominate. As the surface high shifts
eastward, winds will become south southwest 5-10kts with some
gusts into the 17kt range. It appears the ground conditions will
be near saturation at sunrise, but at this time, did not mention
any brief fog.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will be in place through early next week, with rain
chances returning Tuesday evening. Minimum RH values will be in
the 30-40 percent range Sunday and Monday. 20 ft winds become
southwesterly Sunday at 6-12 mph, and diminish to 5-8 mph on
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     48  82  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    49  82  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  53  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  51  83  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      50  82  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      51  81  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  50  82  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        50  82  54  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...75