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000
FXUS64 KBMX 100619
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
119 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of Tonight)
Issued at 842 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2024

We are currently in a lull between waves of precipitation. We will
continue with cloudy skies for the remainder of tonight. Most of
the precip should hold off until Wed during the day, except for
the NW counties should get some of the activity from MS. With that
said, closely watching SRN portion of area in JAN`s CWA (currently
with SVR warning) if storm does hold together in some form and go
more ERLY instead of NE, which hires models are not accounting
well for right now. Otherwise, lows will remain mild with not much
diurnal cooling tonight as we have overcast conditions and SE
winds.

08

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2024

Southerly flow and plenty of moisture advection will continue over
the area through the short term. PW values will be max for this
time of year, with scattered convection moving southwest to
northeast around a high pressure over the eastern coast. Most of
the activity will remain in the northern half of Alabama, though a
stray light shower may venture into the southwestern quarter of
the state today and overnight. Rain could be moderate at times
with accumulations expected over a time period of this afternoon
through the overnight hours. Instabilities will be limited,
around or less than 500 j/kg across the northern part of the area,
but plenty of upper level dynamics and bulk shear will allow for
a few isolated thunderstorms to be embedded in the areas of
showers.

Scattered convection will continue through the night and into
the very early morning where that wave of convection will move
east, with dry weather expected over the state through the morning
and early afternoon ahead of the next wave of storms.
Temperatures will be colder today due to the continuous cloud
cover, with highs in the low 60s to mid 70s and lows in the upper
50s to lower 60s tonight.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2024

Multiple threats, including flooding, severe storms, and strong
gradient winds, remain in the forecast Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday night.

Will focus on the severe threat first, since that is the more
difficult one to diagnose. The main issue remains on how far north
that severe threat will get. It largely depends on amount and
timing of destabilization tomorrow afternoon. There is a window of
opportunity for the low levels to destabilize by early afternoon.
However, this is about the same time that the upper level low is
opening up, and there is a energy transfer from one surface low
position to another. During this transition, shear profiles are
not exactly the best in our area for severe storms. Once the
surface low reorganizes, and the low level jet kicks back in in
the evening, stability is on the downswing.

The key thing to watch will be how much convection is going on
early in the day, and how much that suppresses the
destabilization process for the afternoon. If there`s no early
shower/storm activity (or it is all well north of our area), then
we could destabilize early enough to tap into some of the early
"good shear." Also, if there is no low position transition, or if
it happens more quickly, and there is a linkage of instability and
shear, then the severe threat ramps up.

Having said all that, it is certainly going to rain. And there is
a more than slight chance of flooding rain. Will continue with
ongoing Flood Watch. WPC collaborated storm total QPF amounts are
still in the 2 to 4 inch range. Much (if not most) of that comes
in the 18z Wednesday to 06z Thursday time frame.

Finally, gradient winds will likely be in the 15 to 25 mph range,
with occasional gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Some of the higher
resolution CAMS are actually hinting at a wake low behind the
convective band tomorrow afternoon/evening, which could bring a
brief period of even higher gusts.

It will take the better part of Thursday to get rid of the
lingering rain and clouds, leaving a dry forecast for Friday
through (at least) the start of next week.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM CDT WED APR 10 2024

VFR conds expected across a majority of central Alabama thru 15Z.
An area of MVFR cigs may develop over west Alabama between 09Z
and 15Z, which would impact KTCL. An MCS will enter west Alabama
arnd 16Z and track rapidly eastward, reaching the AL/GA state line
by 21Z. VFR conds expected ahead of the leading edge of the MCS,
but a rapid decrease in vsbys/cigs will occur with the leading
edge of the intense line of tstms. The southern end of the line
could produce straight line winds near 60 kts, which would impact
KMGM/KTOI. Showers with embedded tstms will continue for 3-5
hours after the passage of the convective line. MVFR cigs will
develop for areas west of I-65 in the early afternoon, spreading
eastward to the I-65 corridor by 23Z. Widespread IFR cigs will
develop between 00Z and 03Z, along with southeast gradient winds
of 15-20 kts and gusts near 30 kts.


58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue across the
area through tonight. Showers and storms will be more widespread
on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A drier airmass returns on
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     77  60  67  46 /  90  80  40  10
Anniston    77  61  69  47 /  90  80  40   0
Birmingham  75  61  65  48 /  90  80  30   0
Tuscaloosa  74  59  66  47 /  90  70  20   0
Calera      74  59  64  49 /  90  80  30   0
Auburn      78  63  71  50 /  90  80  30   0
Montgomery  78  63  69  50 /  90  80  20   0
Troy        79  62  73  50 /  90  80  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon CDT today through Thursday morning for the
following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-
Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-
Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-
Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-
Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-
Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...58/rose