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000
FXUS64 KBMX 121842
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
142 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT FRI APR 12 2024

This afternoon.

A closed low was located over Lake Huron of the Great Lakes while
deep troughing extended southwest over the Southern Appalachians.
To our west, amplified longwave ridging extended over the Plains
states while a shortwave trough was offshore of Southern
California. Deep occluded surface low pressure was located just
northeast of Lake Huron with another area of low pressure at the
triple point located across far Northwest New York State. A
surface cold front extended south along the Mid Atlantic and
further south offshore of the Southeast Atlantic Coast. Surface
high pressure was centered across the ArkLaTex Region.

The pressure gradient remains tight enough again today to support
breezy to windy conditions at times under sunny skies except for
the northeast counties that may see a few cumulus clouds moving
southeast through the afternoon hours. Winds will be from the
northwest at 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible in the more
open areas and areas in higher terrain. High temperatures will
range from the mid 60s in the higher terrain east to the mid 70s
far southwest.

Tonight.

The deep upper low will move east over Northern New York
overnight while longwave ridging continues to build over the
Plains and moves east toward the Mid-South Region. Both deep
surface low pressure areas will move northeast into Canada while
surface high pressure moves east, becoming centered across the
Lower to Middle Mississippi River Valley.

Expect clear skies across much of the area with exception far
northeast where a few clouds may linger before moving east of the
state later in the night and far southwest where a few high clouds
will begin to approach from the west. Some patchy fog may develop
due to the recent rains that have resulted in rather moist ground
conditions. This potential looks to be best across portions of
the southwest and in vicinity of rivers and lakes. The winds will
decrease substantially as surface high pressure moves closer to
the area with northwest winds from 2-4 mph forecast. Low
temperatures will range from near 40 in the normally colder spots
north and northeast to the mid 40s south and southwest.

Saturday.

Amplified ridging in the mid levels will continue to move east
toward the area on Saturday while troughing will persist over New
England with a closed low along the Central California Coast. A
surface trough will be located to the east along the Coastal
Carolinas while surface high pressure will be centered near the
Florida Big Bend.

Mostly sunny skies are forecast on Saturday as some high level
clouds move in from the west and southwest through the day. Winds
will be from the west-northwest at 6-12 mph. High temperatures
will range from the mid 70s in the higher elevations east to the
low 80s southwest.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2024

A period of quiet weather is expected for Sunday through Tuesday
as an upper-level ridge amplifies over the region in response to
a strong trough moving toward the Southern Plains. Conditions
will remain dry with temperatures should reaching the low to mid
80s each afternoon. As the trough in the Plains moves toward the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the tail end of a weakening front
should arrive on Wednesday. This could bring a few showers and
thunderstorms to our north counties, but widespread significant
rain is not expected.

Another trough is expected to move across the Middle Mississippi
Valley late Thursday. Much of the day should remain dry, but rain
chances will increase Thursday evening into early Friday as a
front approaches from the northwest.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Clear skies will
persist at all sites this afternoon and evening with only a few
scattered cumulus possible far northeast. Breezy low-level west
to northwest winds will continue through the afternoon with gusts
from 15-25 kts generally. Expect winds to slacken greatly
overnight with speeds generally less than 5 kts overnight. Some
high clouds will move east over much of the south and west parts
of the area into the day Saturday with low-level winds lighter
from the northwest at 4-8 kts.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will be in place through the weekend. Min RHs will
drop into the 26-35 percent range for much of the area this
afternoon, with 20 ft northwesterly winds in the 10-18 mph range.
Max RH values overnight will be in the low 70s to mid 90s. Could
see some critical conditions even though red flag criteria will
not be met. The 20 ft winds diminish Saturday to less than 10 mph
and become more westerly. Minimum RH values will be in the 28-38
percent range. Dry conditions continue through the first of next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     42  77  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    41  77  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  45  78  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  44  81  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      43  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      45  77  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  44  79  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        46  79  52  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05