Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FNUS71 KBOX 171029
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for MSSF Unit Bravo - NE subunit...MADCR
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
629 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure builds over the region today, but will shift
offshore this evening. This keeps winds light with the sea breeze
developing around 11 AM TO 1 PM and sliding through the MMSF Unit
location. Winds shift from the NE to the ENE/NE with this shift. Rain
spreads in tonight into Thursday across the interior as a warm
front lifts toward the region.

Minimum relative humidities range from 40 to 50 percent today and
50 to 60 percent on Thursday.

.OUTLOOK... Friday through Tuesday...

High pressure builds overhead for much of Friday. Another round
of light rain showers return late Friday into early Saturday.
Moderate probabilities of a wetting rain. Dry with gusty winds
for the rest of Saturday and Sunday. High pressure remains in
control into early next week.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming partly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........40 to 50 percent.
Dewpoint............33.
Max apparent temp...52.
Surface winds (mph).Northeast winds 7 to 9 mph shifting to the east
                    7 to 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 7 mph shifting to the
                    east 7 to 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 9 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (18700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................19 to 25 decreasing to 14 late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5   6   17  15  16  27  44  58
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............49  50  51  52  52  52  52  51
Dewpoint........33  32  32  31  33  33  33  34
RH..............54  50  48  45  48  48  48  52
Heat index (F)..46  47  51  52  52  52  52  51
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  ENE ENE E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   8   9   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.9   9   8   9   10  9   9   12
Surface wnd dir.NE  NE  NE  ENE ENE E   E   E
Surface wnd spd.7   7   7   8   9   8   8   7
Surface wnd gst.9   9   8   9   10  9   9   12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.5
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   SE
Transp wind spd.9   8   7   8   9   8   8   7
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............19  21  19  23  25  21  19  14
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..12  14  13  16  19  15  13  9
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........70 percent.
Dewpoint............34.
Max apparent temp...46.
Surface winds (mph).Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 to 13.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......20 decreasing to 6.0.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........61  61  69  71  82  83  84  85  87  86  86  86
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............49  47  46  45  44  44  44  44  44  44  44  44
Dewpoint........34  35  35  35  35  34  33  33  34  34  34  34
RH..............56  63  65  68  70  68  65  65  68  68  68  68
Heat index (F)..46  44  44  43  41  42  42  42  44  42  42  42
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   6   5   5   5   3   3   3   2   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  9   9   8   8   8   8   8   9
Surface wnd dir.SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
Surface wnd spd.7   6   5   5   5   3   3   3   2   3   3   3
Surface wnd gst.10  10  10  10  9   9   8   8   8   8   8   9
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.8   9   10  10  9   9   9   10  10  10  9   9
LVORI...........2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............13  6   7   7   6   4   4   5   5   5   4   4
Haines index....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9   8   7   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...20  20  20  14  10  6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........50 to 60 percent.
Dewpoint............33.
Max apparent temp...46.
Surface winds (mph).East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (19200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................13 to 20 increasing to 17 to 26 in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......6.0.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........85     81     83     84     84     83
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............44     46     48     50     50     49
Dewpoint........34     33     33     33     33     34
RH..............68     60     56     52     52     56
Heat index (F)..41     42     44     46     46     45
20 ft wind......E 5    E 8    E 9    E 10   E 10   E 10
20 ft wind gust.10     16     16     17     16     14
Surface wind....E 5    E 8    E 9    E 10   E 10   E 10
Surface wnd gst.10     16     16     17     16     14
Mix hgt (ft)....600    800    1100   1200   1100   900
Transport wind..SE 12  E 15   E 17   E 18   E 17   E 16
LVORI...........3      2      2      2      2      2
ADI.............13     17     23     26     24     20
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6      11     16     19     17     13
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR
Ceiling (kft)...6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0

$$
Forecaster...BL
Requested by...Karyn Lothrop
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411190.0/BOX
.DELDT 04/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL karyn.lothrop@mass.gov
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