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000
FXUS64 KBRO 251130 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
630 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

An upper level ridge will continue to move eastward during today and
on Friday. A mid-level trough will move behind the ridge, which will
keep the upper level ridge moving. The upper level patterns will aid
in the development of a surface low in the Lee of the Rockies and a
gradual deepening of the low will lead into a tightening of the
pressure gradient that will result in some gusty winds over the
region. However currently winds are expected to be just below Wind
Advisory criteria, has wind gusts are expected to be around 35 mph
and sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph, at this current point based
on the latest model guidance. However given that it is so
borderline, wind advisories for Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo
counties might be needed if the winds end up being stronger than
currently anticipated. Either way, today is expected to be a windy
day. Models are also showing a similar pattern unfolding for Friday
as well. The period looks to be rain free mainly due to the upper
level ridge affecting Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

With the surface winds coming from the south to southeast during the
short term forecast period, temperatures will be on the warmer side.
The high temperatures for today and tomorrow see the 90s take over
majority of the area, leaving only the coastal areas and the island
in the upper 80s. Meanwhile the low temperatures for tonight are
expected to be in the 70s for the entire area.

Finally, along the coast, a High Risk of Rip Currents is in place
through Friday as the swell and waves continue to build with the
stronger winds. A High Surf Advisory might be needed for tomorrow if
the waves continue to build higher.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Key Messages:

* Breezy to windy conditions continue Friday night into Sunday; wind
  gusts up to 40 mph out of the southeast are possible.

* Adverse marine conditions are expected to continue into Monday.

* Low grade (20-30%) or isolated chances for showers and storms are
  possible Monday-Wednesday night.

The long-term forecast period will feature mostly dry conditions
over the local CWA. There will be the chance for some low
grade/isolated (20-30% PoPs) chances for showers and thunderstorms
to develop each day/night from Monday-Wednesday night. Areas west of
I-69C and over the northern Ranchlands will have the best chance to
see showers and thunderstorms as forecast models are signaling
for storms to develop over the mountains of north-central Mexico
and a frontal boundary stalling out just to our north. Chances for
storms will depend on if and how far east the storms that form
over mountains translate east and how far south a frontal boundary
to our north sags south. Greatest confidence as far as timing
currently is Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Other than that, expect for a continuation of dry weather over the
area with warm to very warm temperatures and increased humidity
levels. Winds will remain a factor Friday night into Sunday amid a
tight pressure gradient over the region. Forecast models are
suggesting low level jet (LLJ) 850 mb winds ranging between 30-45
kts during this time period. Couple this with local topographic
enhancements and wouldn`t be surprised for wind gust to reach Wind
Advisory criteria (especially Saturday night).

Daytime high temperatures are expected to range from the upper 80s
to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows are expected to be in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Starting off with MVFR conditions through the morning hours for
the TAF sites and then during the afternoon some VFR breaks are
possible. Southerly to southeasterly winds are expected to be
windy during the late morning through the evening due to an
enhanced pressure gradient over the region with wind gusts up to
30 knots expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Today through Friday...While conditions will start out favorable,
the tightening pressure gradient between a developing low near the
Rockies and high pressure over the Gulf, will see winds and seas
become elevated by this afternoon resulting in hazardous conditions.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre and
nearshore Gulf waters through tonight. While conditions for the
offshore Gulf waters look to remain under criteria for a Small Craft
Advisory since the winds don`t stay strong enough or have enough
presence at this current point, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
for the offshore Gulf waters as the seas will be adverse.

Friday Night through Wednesday Night....Breezy to windy conditions
from a strong pressure gradient will result in continued adverse
marine conditions Friday evening into the early parts of next week.
Small Craft conditions are likely Friday night through Sunday night
and possibly into Monday especially over the Gulf Waters. Marine
conditions will look to improve Monday night into Wednesday of next
week with light to moderate winds returning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             87  75  87  75 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               89  72  89  73 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 90  75  91  75 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         92  73  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  74  80  75 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     85  73  86  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma
AVIATION...64-Katz