National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KBRO 232340
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
640 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Upper level ridging over the Rockies will shift eastward to the
Central Plains through the period. This will provide a broad area
of subsidence and generally dry westerly mid level flow over deep
south Texas. Low-level southerly to southeasterly return flow will
continue through the period, providing additional low level
moisture and warmer temperatures. Skies look to stay mostly cloudy
overnight tonight, however by Wednesday afternoon skies look to
become mostly sunny across the area. Cloud cover looks to increase
again Wednesday night as the boundary layer becomes more
saturated.

Temperatures are expected to continue a generally warming trend,
with high temperatures Wednesday reaching the upper 80s to low 90s.
Low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night are forecast to be in
the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Key message:
-The South Texas wind machine will switch on Thursday and Friday

Generally quiet weather will dominate the long term forecast
period. This pattern will be supported by surface high pressure
influencing the region while storm systems move over the Plains
late in the week. That doesn`t mean we will go without any
threats, however. The tighter pressure gradient accompanying the
aforementioned pattern will allow strong southeast to south winds
to develop. This will be especially true Thursday and Friday and
may continue into Saturday and Sunday. Thursday will be breezy to
windy while winds on Friday will be slightly stronger and could
reach wind advisory criteria over the eastern third or so of the
CWA. The fire weather threat will remain more restrained since the
stonger winds will occur over eastern sections where relative
humidity values will remain robust. Farther west, lower wind
speeds and still decent relative humidity values will fall shy of
critical fire weather indicators.

The pattern looks dry for most of the forecast. A couple of
frontal tails will sweep across South Texas on Friday and Sunday,
but appear to stay just north of deep South Texas and the RGV.
Not until late in the forecast (Monday, day 7), does broad, mid-
level troughing shift the upstream mid-level pattern to southwest,
providing a chance for Sierra Madre Oriental front range
convection to to give it a go. Showers and thunderstorms have been
introduced next Monday afternoon and night.

Temperatures will run several degrees above normal through the
forecast with no real interruptions. There will be a mix of clouds
and sun, though windier days could support a slightly more robust
low cloud regime.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The latest satellite imagery depicts BKN to OVC cloud cover across
the region, with most sites reporting low VFR to high MVFR
ceilings this evening. High res guidance indicates MVFR ceilings
will become more widespread overnight as low level southerly to
southeasterly flow continues to transport Gulf moisture toward the
region. Ceilings should begin to improve to VFR by mid to late
morning on Wednesday. Otherwise, southeast winds around 10-15
knots will prevail through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Now through Wednesday night...A broad area of surface high
pressure is expected to persist over the northeastern Gulf,
supporting southeasterly winds along the Lower Texas Coast.
Generally light to moderate southeasterly winds and moderate seas
are expected through Wednesday night, however, some stronger winds
over the Laguna Madre Wednesday afternoon could necessitate Small
Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines.

Thursday through Sunday night...Strong southeast winds will prevail
Thursday through Friday night, courtesy of interaction between
Plains low pressure and higher pressure over the West Gulf. Small
craft advisory conditions will be the norm. After Friday night,
winds will remain moderate to fresh. Although small craft should
exercise caution conditions will be the norm on the Laguna Madre
after Friday night, wave models are showing elevated seas on the
Gulf, and continued small craft advisory conditions will be
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             73  86  74  86 /   0  10   0   0
HARLINGEN               70  89  71  90 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 72  90  74  90 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         71  91  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      74  79  74  80 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     72  84  72  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...22-Garcia