Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 261658 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1158 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A nearly zonal 500 mb flow, combined with broad surface high
pressure dominant over the BRO CWFA, will lead to fine conditions
during the period. Limited cloud cover with no chance of
precipitation is anticipated, and a flow much more offshore than
onshore will result in near normal daytime high and overnight low
temperatures.

Additionally, improving, but still adverse, seas along the Lower
Texas Coast will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the
local beaches through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Dry and quiet weather conditions are expected to prevail through the
long term. Mid-level ridging will begin to build over the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. At the surface, high pressure across
Deep South Texas and along the Lower Texas Coast Wednesday night
will gradually slide eastward Thursday night into Friday. A cool
night is expected Wednesday night with lows generally in the 50s and
light east winds. Thursday will be warm with highs in the low to mid
80s, except for the 70s along the coast. Light southeast winds
Thursday should begin to increase Thursday night as the pressure
gradient is expected to strengthen. Breezy southeast winds are
likely Friday into Monday as surface high pressure builds and
stretches across the Gulf of Mexico. The latest GFS/ECMWF are
suggesting winds could reach borderline Wind Advisory criteria along
the coastal counties Friday or Monday into Tuesday. The GFS has the
strongest winds Friday and Monday, while the ECMWF is hinting more
towards Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will steadily warm Friday
into early next week with the persistent moderate to occasionally
strong south to southeast flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

We have VFR conditions at the TAF sites now with a dry atmosphere
(nary a cloud in the sky) and moderate northwest winds as high
pressure controls the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will
remain in control through the short term. Winds will tend to veer
light to moderate northeast to east the next 24 hours and could
bring back a few low clouds during the early Wednesday morning
hours, even enough for a few hours of mainly VFR ceilings. By late
Wednesday morning to early afternoon any ceilings will have a
good chance of scattering out.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Today through Wednesday: A slow improvement in marine conditions
is anticipated during the period as high pressure becomes dominant
over the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico. However, winds
and/or sea heights, especially for the Gulf of Mexico waters from
0 to 60 nautical miles offshore, will likely reach Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution criteria through most, if not all, of the
period.

Wednesday night through Sunday...A weak gradient will lead to light
easterly flow and low to moderate seas Wednesday night. A weak
return flow will begin on Thursday and then the winds are expected
to increase Thursday night into Friday as the pressure gradient
strengthens. Small craft exercise caution conditions will be likely
along the Lower Texas Coast Friday into the weekend. However, small
craft advisories will also be possible on the Laguna Madre during
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  62  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               82  57  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 84  59  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         83  57  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      73  65  73  64 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  62  77  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....80-MB
AVIATION...54-BHM


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