016
FXUS64 KBRO 031750 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1250 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A 500 mb disturbance will approach the western portion of CWA this
afternoon. At the surface, the southern extension of the Texas
dryline will likely lie just to the west of the area today,
extending south into Mexico along the Sierra Madre Oriental range.
The combination of a very moist low-level airmass, daytime heating
and mid to upper level energy will support the develop of convection
over neighboring Mexico. Forecast soundings from along the Rio
Grande River suggest SBCAPE values of 2500-4000 J/kg late this
afternoon. The isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may
drift into Zapata, Starr, and Jim Hogg counties later this afternoon
and evening. SPC has placed the County Warning Area in a general
thunderstorm risk area, generally along and east of US 281/I-69C,
with the portions of the Rio Grand Plains and the Upper Valley in a
marginal thunderstorm risk for today and tonight. Large hail and
locally damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. There is a low
chance that these stronger supercells will move into the western
portions of the CWA this afternoon and evening. SPC has all of Deep
South Texas outlined in a general thunderstorm risk for Saturday.

Otherwise, increasing low level moisture and light winds this
morning may support patchy light fog, mainly across the Northern
Ranchlands and near/over marine areas.

Additionally, above normal temperatures will continue through the
short-term with highs generally ranging from the low to mid 90s,
except for the 80s near the coast, today and Saturday. Overnight
temperatures will be warm with lows in the mid to upper 70s, which
is a blend of the NBM/CONSShort. Southeast winds will remain
moderate to breezy.

Elevated seas will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the
local beaches today through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Increasing and prolonged heat will be the main concern during this
portion of the total forecast. Steadily rising daytime highs will
occur throughout the period, with well above normal values likely
in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. Temperatures will near
established HEAT ADVISORY criteria on Tuesday, and may reach or
surpass the threshold for Wednesday and Thursday as a dryline
nudges into the BRO CWFA from the west.

Additionally, an enhanced pressure gradient will produce a breezy
to windy onshore flow, providing some measure of relief from the
heat, especially in shaded areas. However, the strength of the
wind will not near or exceed established WIND ADVISORY criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

TAF conditions are VFR at the sites as low clouds have scattered
out. Still have ceilings above 3 kft, however. High pressure
controls the Gulf, with lower pressure to the west, sustaining the
seasonal moderate southeast winds across the region. A few storms
could be possible upstream toward Laredo this evening, but the
lower and even mid RGV, including the TAF sites, should avoid
convection. A familiar pattern will occur this evening as ceilings
lower to MVFR overnight through Saturday morning. Southeast winds
will decrease to light overnight, strengthening to moderate and
breezy on Saturday. Light, patchy fog could develop at the TAF
sites overnight, but visibility limitations should be no worse
than MVFR ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate to sometimes
marginally high seas will prevail along the lower Texas Coast
through the period. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will
be likely for portions or all of the lower Texas coastal waters
through Saturday.

(Saturday Night through Thursday)
An enhanced pressure gradient will exist over the western Gulf of
Mexico throughout the period. Breezy to strong winds and moderate
to rough seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast, with both
Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory likely to be
needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  76  89  76 /  20  10   0   0
HARLINGEN               91  74  91  75 /  20  10   0   0
MCALLEN                 93  77  93  77 /  20  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  76  93  76 /  20  20   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  77  81  77 /  20  10   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     87  74  86  75 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...54-BHM