206
FXUS61 KBTV 010733
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
333 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of fog will cause poor visibility this morning especially in
low spots away from Lake Champlain. Cloudy conditions will persist
today with more chances of light rain tonight into Thursday.
Changeable weather will continue into the weekend with a series of
weak fronts moving through the region and brief periods of high
pressure keeping temperatures near or slightly above seasonal
averages.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Wednesday...Fog will be the main weather feature
this morning with some lower spots away from Lake Champlain being
locally dense. Plan on needing a little extra time for your commute
this morning. Cloud cover will linger today with weak upslope flow
keeping a few showers around mainly over terrain. A quick moving,
weak low pressure will drop out of Canada tonight increasing rain
chances mainly towards the Canadian border and down the Greens into
Thursday; light QPF is expected with northern Greens picking up
around 0.33" and sprinkles to generally up to 0.1" elsewhere. With
cold air locked well northward, airmasses moving through the region
will generally be continental originating from the central Plains.
This will keep temperatures well moderated with highs generally in
the upper 50s to low 60s across northern New York and northern
Vermont with low 60s to around 70 degrees today and Thursday
respectively for southern Vermont. Lows tonight will be mild, in the
40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Wednesday...Low stratus will linger Thursday night
behind a weak shortwave, but any precipitation should move out by
then. Lows will fall into the 40s across the region. Ridging will
briefly build in for Friday and will keep the weather dry. However,
a surface high located over Atlantic Canada will keep the region in
easterly flow and will help the low clouds linger into the day.
These clouds should break sometime during the day on Friday and the
sun may briefly able to come out. However, high clouds ahead of an
occluded front will quickly be moving in from the west so any sun
will likely be filtered and short-lived. Temperatures should still
warm up pretty far, with highs expected to be in the upper 60s and
low 70s. This is supported by 925 mb temperatures generally between
8-13 celsius. However, models have been trending down slightly with
the temperatures and are now lingering the cloud cover longer so had
to bring down highs slightly.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Wednesday...Active but relatively unimpactful
weather will prevail through the weekend into next week. Overall,
any cold air will be locked up to the north and zonal flow will
prevent any significant storm systems from developing. This will
bring some chances for showers and keep the temperatures at or above
normal for the time of year. An occluded front will slowly move
through over the weekend and bring some showers to the region. There
is still model uncertainty in the timing so kept PoPs chance for
now. The models have generally been trending to a later frontal
passage, with most GFS and Euro ensemble members now having it pass
through Saturday night or Sunday. The trend is keeping Saturday
drier, particular across Vermont. Regardless of the timing, QPF will
be relatively low and should not pose a flooding threat. A trailing
cold front should pass through after and it will bring the chance
for a few more additional showers, but it will be falling apart as
it moves into the region. Therefore, the showers and cold air behind
it look unimpressive. Seasonal and drier weather looks to dominate
the beginning of the week before shower chances return mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Widespread IFR/VLIFR conditions due to
low stratus will continue 12-16Z with MPV/SLK lingering
longest. VIS will be more variable due to fog ranging 1/2sm-4sm
in general with 6+sm most likely at PBG. Worst VIS will be
08-13Z then improving quickly 13-15Z. Then MVFR CIGs likely
through 22Z before a chance of VFR through about 05Z. Another
weak trough is moving in out of southern Canada and will bring
more shower chances 22Z today to 12Z Thursday mainly from the
Champlain Valley northeastward.


Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Boyd