Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBUF 270015 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 815 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak low pressure will move northeast across the Great Lakes tonight bringing occasional showers to our region...along with a few embedded thunderstorms to the Southern Tier. The showers will then diminish from west to east on Monday...with mild temperatures otherwise continuing. Another low will move through the region on Tuesday...with drier and cooler weather then following for Wednesday and Thursday...before unsettled weather returns on Friday and continues through Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak low pressure over southern Lake Michigan will make its way northeastward across the Central Great Lakes tonight...with the broad warm air advection regime out ahead of the low and a couple of shortwave impulses/attendant weak surface troughs conspiring to spread occasional showers across our region from southwest to northeast. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible across the Southern Tier owing to the presence of some weak elevated instability...though any winds from these and a developing 40-45 knot low level jet will be confined to areas above the surface...thanks to a strong inversion situated between 1 and 2 kft. Temperature-wise... expect a rather warm night by late March standards...with lows ranging from around 40 across the Eastern Lake Ontario region to the mid and upper 40s south of Lake Ontario. On Monday the low will continue tracking northeastward into Quebec Province...with drier air and subsidence working across the region following the passage of one final shortwave and its associated weak surface trough. This will result in showers steadily diminishing from west to east as the day progresses...allowing for a mainly dry afternoon from about the Genesee Valley westward. With little to no change in airmass expected...temperatures should again climb into the 50s across most areas...while touching or breaching the 60F mark again across favored downslope flow regions south of Lake Ontario.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... While initially dry Monday evening, as a narrow ridge of high pressure moves across the region, late Monday night into Tuesday morning will see increasing coverage of rain showers as an open trough tracks through Ohio Valley to off the northeast coast by Tuesday afternoon. This will result in a few hours of showers moving across the region, with a drying trend from west to east across the region by Tuesday afternoon. Increased PoPs to categorical, with most all locations picking some light rain on Tuesday, however it is important to stress that Tuesday looks to be far from a washout, with plenty of dry time as showers taper off. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 40s in the North Country to the upper 50s in the Southern Tier as cooler air moves in from the north behind the trough passage. Tuesday night through Thursday will finally bring a stretch of dry weather to region as a sprawling high pressure system builds in across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will moderate to near seasonal normals, with highs mainly in the 40s and low in the 20s/30s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The pattern will become more active again by the end of the week after a few dry days. A mid level closed low will meander across the Four Corners region during the first half of the week, then eject ENE across the central Plains to the Ohio Valley by Friday. Increasing warm advection and moisture transport ahead of this trough will bring a chance of a few showers Thursday night mainly in Western NY. Rain chances will then increase Friday and Friday night as the deep mid level trough and associated surface low cross the region. The system will be filling with time, which generally keeps forcing and moisture transport on the weaker side which will in turn keep rain amounts relatively modest. This system will slowly pull out next weekend, with a few scattered showers lingering into Saturday as the trough and surface low move to the east coast, with northwest flow and wrap around moisture hanging back across the Lower Great Lakes. Moisture and rain chances should diminish by Sunday as the trough moves well off the eastern seaboard. Temperatures will likely run a little above average through the period, with highs generally in the low to mid 50s and lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will track from the Chicago area northeastward across the Central Great Lakes tonight. In the process this system will spread occasional showers across our area from west to east...with a few embedded thunderstorms also becoming possible across the Southern Tier. Expect flight conditions to largely be in the IFR to MVFR range across the Eastern Lake Ontario region and the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes regions...while a general southerly flow should help to largely maintain VFR conditions across the lake plains south of Lake Ontario...except for brief reductions to MVFR/IFR within any showers. On Monday the surface low will make its way northeastward into Quebec Province...with showers consequently diminishing from west to east across the area. Expect a mix of IFR/MVFR conditions at the start of the day to gradually improve to MVFR/VFR over time. Outlook... Monday night...VFR/MVFR...deteriorating to MVFR/IFR in showers across far western New York late. Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with occasional showers. Wednesday and Thursday...VFR. Friday...MVFR/IFR with showers likely.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds will veer to southeast and then southerly tonight as weak low pressure tracks northeastward across the central Great Lakes. As this occurs...the winds across the eastern portion of Lake Ontario will increase enough to reach the lower end of the advisory range for a good chunk of the night...though the greater wave action will remain well offshore. Meanwhile winds across the western portion of the lake will quickly diminish this evening... and should allow for the eventual cancellation of advisories there later on this evening. The weak low will make its way further northeastward into Quebec on Monday...with a weaker pressure gradient and stable temperature profiles resulting in winds and waves remaining below advisory levels.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042- 043. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LOZ044-045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJR/ZAFF NEAR TERM...JJR/ZAFF SHORT TERM...CHURCH LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK AVIATION...JJR/ZAFF MARINE...JJR/ZAFF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.