Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 261936
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
336 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild air streaming northwards ahead of a slow moving cold front will
maintain above normal temperatures through at least Wednesday...but
the more comfortable conditions will be accompanied by the potential
for some showers. Fair dry weather with more seasonable conditions
can be expected for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A 30 mile band of light to occasionally moderate showers extending
from Chautauqua county and western Pennsylvania to the Upper Ohio
valley will slowly work its way to the northeast across the far
western counties during the remainder of the afternoon. The forcing
for this activity is being supplied by the combination of a coupled
H25 jet and convergence below H7 ahead of a pre frontal trough.
Meanwhile...clouds will gradually and thicken for the Finger Lakes
and Eastern Lake Ontario regions. Otherwise...it will be mild this
afternoon with widespread 60s across the lower elevations and
readings in the 50s for the higher terrain.

The pre-frontal trough will pass through the region tonight keeping
the likelihood for showers, although a break in the shower activity
should be found between the pre-frontal trough and the main surface
cold front. It will be a mild night with overnight lows in the 40s.

The bulk of the mid level moisture will be stripped away in the wake
of the pre frontal trough by Wednesday morning...so when the actual
cold front moves through the region...there will be little moisture
to act upon. This will greatly limit the extent of the shower
activity...particularly over the western counties. Otherwise it will
remain on the mild side Wednesday with max temps in the lower 50s in
the far west and in the lower 60s from the Finger Lakes and interior
Southern Tier to the Eastern Lake Ontario region.

The pre-frontal trough will pass through the region tonight keeping
the likelihood for showers, although a break in the shower activity
should be found between the pre-frontal trough and the main surface
cold front. It will be a mild night with overnight lows in the 40s.

The bulk of the mid level moisture will be stripped away in the wake
of the pre frontal trough by Wednesday morning...so when the actual
cold front finally moves through the region...there will be little
moisture to act upon. This will greatly limit the extent of the
shower activity...particularly over the western counties. Otherwise
it will remain on the mild side Wednesday with max temps in the
lower 50s in the far west and in the lower 60s from the Finger Lakes
and interior Southern Tier to the Eastern Lake Ontario region.

High pressure over the Ohio valley will nose northeastward Wednesday
night. This will provide fair dry weather

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
While a deep longwave tough will pass over the Great Lakes during
this period...sfc based high pressure centered over the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys will extend across our region to GUARANTEE fair
dry weather. Meanwhile...temperatures will average within a degree
or so of normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deterministic guidance (12Z ECMWF and GFS) still at odds(timing) to
when a weak shortwave moving through the zonal flow aloft will
impact the eastern Great Lakes Saturday and/or Saturday night. Have
kept chance Pops for most locales, with the greatest potential for
showers over SW NYS.

High pressure builds in Sunday, which will bring fair dry weather
through Monday. The next system to impact western and central New
York still looks on track for late Monday night and Tuesday. Low
pressure over the plains will push a warm front towards our region,
possibly bringing a soaking rain or rain/snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR weather will persist across the region this afternoon...
although as pre frontal trough nears from the west...showers will
slowly overspread the far western counties of the state.

Tonight...the aforementioned pre frontal trough will cross the
region with MVFR cigs and the likelihood of more showers. Cigs could
lower to IFR levels for the higher situated airfields of the Srn
Tier.

On Wednesday...cigs will generally range from 2500-3500 ft with
scattered rain showers.

Outlook...

Thursday and Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR, but with showers possible far west late.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate east to southeast winds will be in place, although winds
will freshen across Lake Ontario. Given that the flow will be mainly
offshore, the choppiest conditions will be found in Canadian waters.
However, with more of an easterly component to the wind developing
across central and western Lake Ontario, near Small Craft conditions
will be found from near Sodus Bay westward. Winds will reach Small
Craft threshold along Lake Erie as winds downslope off the
Chautauqua Ridge.

Flow will remain mainly offshore through mid week, however winds
(and possibly waves at times) may near Small Craft Advisory
thresholds on both lakes through this period.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH/TMA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.