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455
FXUS61 KBUF 300829
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
429 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will slowly build across the eastern Great
Lakes through Saturday...bringing clear skies, light winds and fair
weather. Temperatures tonight will drop down into the mid 30s
inland, with patchy frost, to mid 40s closer to the lakes.
Thereafter day to day warming will bring temperatures back to
seasonal normals Friday, and above normal temperatures for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Satellite imagery this early morning displays mid and high level
clouds exiting our region, revealing some valley fog forming in the
inland Southern Tier Valleys.

Surface high pressure will slowly build across the Central Great
Lakes region this period, providing a light northerly flow while
aloft a dry mid level trough over New England is providing cold air
advection. Expect there to be some diurnal cumulus formation across
higher terrain late this morning through the afternoon given the
cool air aloft, but dry air entrainment from the overall dry airmass
will keep these clouds scattered.

Similar highs this afternoon, ranging through the 60s. Dewpoints
will be some 10 degrees or more lower this afternoon than yesterday.
These lower dewpoints remaining into tonight, coupled with light
winds and clear skies will make for excellent radiational cooling
conditions. Lows tonight will be in the mid 30s, with patches of
frost across the inland Southern Tier, low to mid 40s across lower
elevations and areas closer to the Lakes.

A little increase in moisture in the mid levels behind this trough
aloft may bring in enough clouds east of Lake Ontario to limit frost
formation in the colder spots.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A sharp mid level ridge and surface high pressure will gradually
move across the region from west to east Friday and Saturday,
resulting in a stretch of fair and dry weather. Lots of sunshine
each day, with daytime highs near normal Friday then warming into
the mid 70s to around 80 on Saturday. Good radiational cooling
Friday night with the surface high overhead. Lows in the 40s at most
locations.

Late Saturday night and Sunday most 00z models bring the remnants of
a convectively induced shortwave across our area. The system will be
weakening as it moves through, but model agreement supports at least
a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm with this wave. Even
so, Sunday will be far from a washout with the vast majority of the
time being rain-free even if there`s more cloud cover.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Mainly dry weather across the region Sunday night through Monday
night as upper level ridging is briefly reestablished over the
eastern Great Lakes. The overall longwave pattern across the eastern
CONUS becomes fairly uncertain moving into Tuesday, with 00Z
guidance trending slower in bringing any showers in. In general, a
trough digging across the Upper Plains will establish a warm and
moist pattern courtesy of GOMEX based moisture which will spread
into the region. Can`t rule out showers and possibly a thunderstorm
Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm pattern with above normal temperatures
and highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s.
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&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS, mainly VFR flight conditions are found with
surface high pressure bringing clear skies and light winds. There is
valley fog formation in the Southern Tier, that at times will spread
across KJHW. This fog will dissipate around 13Z.

Tonight VFR flight conditions are expected with again valley fog in
the Southern Tier nearing KJHW.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers.
Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for a shower across the
Southern Tier.

&&

.MARINE...
Light northerly flow will bring some modest chop to the lakes
today.

Winds will back to westerly later Thursday...and then eventually
become light and variable Friday into the weekend as the surface
high crests over the Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas