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000
FXUS61 KBUF 251758
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
158 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH ALONG
THE EAST COAST IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A WELL DEFINED
CUTOFF LOW. AT THE SURFACE...THIS IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
RARE LATE MAY NOR`EASTER. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS BACKING INTO
EASTERN LEWIS COUNTY NOW...AND WILL BACK WEST JUST A LITTLE FURTHER
TO NEAR THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY TODAY AS A PERSISTENT AXIS OF
DEFORMATION IN THE 900-700MB LAYER BACKS WEST SLIGHTLY. EXPECT A
CHILLY RAIN TODAY FOR THESE AREAS...WITH THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD
EXTENDING BACK ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

FARTHER WEST...IT WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY ALTHOUGH THE VERY CHILLY AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LATE MAY SUN ANGLE AND SOME REMAINING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SELF-DESTRUCT SUNSHINE ACROSS
AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS OR EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. A NORTHWEST
FLOW OFF THE LAKES AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
STABLE LAKE SHADOWS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE WITHIN
10-20 MILES OF THE LAKES FROM WESTERN WAYNE COUNTY WESTWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...EVEN IN AREAS WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THICK CLOUD COVER. MODEST NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN A BIT COOLER.

EXPECT TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
CLOUD COVER. WITH THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO BE
VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER IN
THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE
UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE 3 WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH GRADIENT
WIND TO PREVENT FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS.

NOTE THAT WE ALSO ISSUED A NEW FREEZE WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WELL...WHICH MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE COOLEST
NIGHT YET IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING
WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON MONDAY. THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS THAT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN LEWIS COUNTY
SUNDAY...BUT THE BULK OF ANY PCPN SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE PERSISTENT LOW.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO THE LAKES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S...BUT INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE READINGS COOLING INTO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AREAS OF FROST AND/OR A FREEZE ARE
POSSIBLE.

ON MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CREST OVER NEW YORK STATE AND BRING
MORE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE THIS
PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OUT WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NAM STILL LIFTS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH FASTER
AND BRINGS SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD THE PCPN OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND FOLLOW
THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
...HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD...AND TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL
LIKELY WARM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION. THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY CAP AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...AND THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...AS
DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. EXTENSIVE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT...ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLACK RIVER. MOST OF THIS WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP CIGS/VSBY MAINLY VFR. FARTHER WEST DIURNAL
CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR INCREASE IN LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND MORE DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT ALL OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE COD AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT MODERATE NW FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON LAKE ONTARIO RIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY BEGINS TO RELAX. ON
LAKE ERIE...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...
BUT WITH THE SHORT FETCH EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 2-4 FEET AND JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ012-019>021-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK