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000
FXUS61 KBUF 172349
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS ADVANCING FROM THE
WEST. A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA WILL WAVER A
BIT NORTH ON SATURDAY YIELDING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

THE CIRRUS OVERHEAD WILL HOLD LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S WHILE TEMPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S. EASTERLY WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO 10C
WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
NORTH...EITHER INTO NY OR SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CONTINUED LOW THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS THIS MOVES
NORTH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A LOW /20 PERCENT/ CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AS LIFT IS QUITE WEAK.
TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER...SHOULD WARM NICELY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 70S DURING
THE DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.  GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. AS THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION THE REGION WILL GET DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE FRONT AND TRACK OF EACH LOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL
TREND TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPS FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTSIDE OF THIS...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST LATE
IN THE WEEKEND A SOUTHERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...LEVAN