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000
FXUS61 KBUF 161936
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
336 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A NICE STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
SITS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS WORKING AROUND THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER
QUEBEC. DIURNAL CU FIELD WHICH HAS DEVELOPED DURING AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL ERODED QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AREAS EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S..ALTHOUGH SOME 30S ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY
FROST.

AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD HIGHS JUST A TOUCH COOLER
THAT TODAYS READINGS...WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON WESTERN NY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES SE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD SLOWLY
BE MOVING INTO THE NE US.  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY
CENTRAL IL TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO
INFLUENCE ON WESTERN NY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SLOWLY INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY INCREASE FROM A RELATIVELY DRY .5 INCH TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN
INCH AT TIMES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS OUTPUT AS THE SLOWLY WARMING AIRMASS IS ABLE TO HOLD MORE
MOISTURE.  WILL PLACE A LOW /20 PERCENT/ CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MOSTLY LIKELY WEATHER OUTCOME IS FOR
A DRY WEEKEND ALBEIT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE. MUCH LIKE SUNDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOWLY WARMING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED UNDERNEATH THIS
FEATURE WITH THE CONTINUED LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE MODEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

AT SOME POINT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIDE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.  CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS
TYPICALLY LOW THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS.  CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS
AT TUESDAY FOR BEING THE MORE ACTIVE OF THE TWO DAYS.  THE FRONT
WILL PROBABLY BE THROUGH BY THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN...WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAIN IN THE FORECAST.  FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...AN EARLY LOOK AT THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN MID WEEK...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
JUST UPSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS WILL BE 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SOME MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXIST ON THE LOWER LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHEN AN
LIGHT EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030-042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA