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000
FXUS61 KBUF 181801
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
201 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE FAIR
WEATHER...COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY...AND COOL NIGHTS. THE
WEEKEND WILL BECOME WARMER WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WE ARE SEEING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EARLY AFTERNOON AND AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD...COUPLED WITH DEPLETION OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY ERODE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SKIES TO BE MAINLY CLEAR. A FEW PATCHES OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BRING AN INCREASE
OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FEET FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO ACROSS
WNY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO CENTRAL MICHIGAN. IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S...MID 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...AND UPPER/AROUND 50 NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

FOR TOMORROW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FROM MICHIGAN TO LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THE DAY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS
THE REGION...MOST PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO WHERE
FOR A TIME SKIES WILL BE PARTY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA
WILL AVERAGE +5 TO +6C WHICH WILL BRING COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AS A BROAD
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS
ACROSS THE REGION AND ULTIMATELY OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND.
COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOUT 5 DEGREES PER DAY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND THEN TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SETTING UP WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THAT WILL
NONETHELESS PUSH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS TREND WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIMITED DIURNAL CU THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK COUPLED POTENTIALLY RESULT
IN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER LOOKS TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL. A BIT MORE HUMIDITY
SHOULD START TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...AT LEAST INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST ALLOWING A WEAK RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.

AFTER THIS...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE ONE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES LOOK TO RIDE OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE CERTAINLY WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE EVEN WARMER AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS TO NEAR 20C. HOWEVER...WILL PLAY IT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE
DUE TO QUESTIONS OVER THE ACTUAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 18Z A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS ARE FOUND ACROSS WNY. AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE DIMINISHES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD A FULL RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES INTO WEDNESDAY. FINE
BOATING CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS