000
FXUS61 KBUF 160614
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
214 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL BE OUR CONTROLLING WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A
NICE STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY...AS A
RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING UP TO 10K FT WILL BE IN
PLACE BEHIND AN EXITING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH HEATING TO QUICKLY ERODE A SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION...
AND WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FOUND JUST ABOVE THAT LEVEL...STRONG
MIXING WILL BE EXTABLISHED BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL PROMOTE GUSTY
WINDS BY 10 AM OR SO...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...WE CAN EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 8C SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH READINGS A FEW DEGREES LOWER EAST OF LK
ONTARIO (H85`S ABT 6C).

FOR THE UPCOMING NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL NOSE SOUTWHARDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SET
US UP FOR A FAIR DRY NIGHT...ALBEIT A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE.
MERCURY READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION WITH SOME 30S POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR
SRN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z MODELS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE IN FOR A STRETCH OF
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS A QUIET
ONE...FEATURING BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY GREAT LAKES REGION...DRIVEN MAINLY BY
UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA.
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EVENTUALLY EASTERN CANADA WILL FORCE AN ELONGATED LOWER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO EASTERN CANADA BY
SATURDAY...PROVIDING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON TO WARM
NICELY THROUGH THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...COOLER NEAR THE SHORES OF
COURSE WITH DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME PATCHY FROST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS NEARING THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AMPLIFICATION IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH
THIS FEATURE...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN ANY ONE PERIOD IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME...GIVEN THE BROAD/WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE DIFFUSE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEPER GULF MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET ADVECTED
NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY/DEEP
LOW EMERGES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL RESULT AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS CIRCULATION AMID INCREASING
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY...ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35
KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND FROM KBUF/KIAG TO KART
WHILE THE WEAKER WINDS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SRN TIER.

FOR THE UPCOMING NIGHT...DIMINSHING WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN ON EASTERN PORTIONS
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH NO HEADLINES ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY.

FINE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...LASTING WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...APFFEL/ZAFF