000
FXUS61 KBUF 151944
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
344 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER AND SPRINGTIME WARMTH...LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS MOVED THROUGH WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT ON ITS HEELS.  15Z AND 16Z AMDAR DATA SHOWED A
LOW LEVEL ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE THROUGH 900MB WITH A 50KT WIND JUST
OFF THE SURFACE.  SOME OF THIS MIXED DOWN WITH A FEW REPORTS OF
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH.  ADIABATIC WARMING ALLOWED SOME LOCATIONS TO JUMP
TO THE 80 DEGREE MARK TOO...WHILE STRONG WINDS FORCED AN ILL DEFINED
LAKE BREEZE WELL INLAND.

THE COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS COOLING ALONG A THIN LINE FROM
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SOUTH TO CAYUGA COUNTY.  FINALLY SEEING SOME
EVIDENCE OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY JUST WEST OF THIS REGION WITH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
WILL INSERT A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ENTERING THE MOHAWK VALLEY AFTER 6PM.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE FROM
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT AFTER SUNSET...WITH A QUIET AND CLEAR NIGHT IN
STORE FOR WESTERN NY...WITH A LOW POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
GRAZING THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BE NOTABLY LOWER THAN TODAY.  OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES MORE MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A WEAK CONVERGENT LINE OF CLOUDS FROM KIAG-KFZY IN
THE AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z MODELS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE IN FOR A STRETCH OF
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS A QUIET
ONE...FEATURING BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY GREAT LAKES REGION...DRIVEN MAINLY BY
UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA.
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EVENTUALLY EASTERN CANADA WILL FORCE AN ELONGATED LOWER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO EASTERN CANADA BY
SATURDAY...PROVIDING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON TO WARM
NICELY THROUGH THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...COOLER NEAR THE SHORES OF
COURSE WITH DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME PATCHY FROST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS NEARING THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AMPLIFICATION IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH
THIS FEATURE...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN ANY ONE PERIOD IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME...GIVEN THE BROAD/WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE DIFFUSE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEPER GULF MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET ADVECTED
NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY/DEEP
LOW EMERGES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL RESULT AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS CIRCULATION AMID INCREASING
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS.  EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE PLAINS WITH A LOW LEVEL
50KT JET ABLE TO PARTIALLY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL EASILY LAST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE SW TO W WINDS UP TO 30KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT.  WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY.
FINE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...LASTING WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ044-
         045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF