Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FNUS51 KBUF 170927
FWFBUF

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR WESTERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
527 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR TO END
THE WEEKEND...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ESPECIALLY THE
NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN LATER SUNDAY BRINGING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER
BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES MONDAY...SIGNALING A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER.

NYZ001-002-010-011-172115-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
527 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          SAT
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     50           70           60
PRECIP TYPE                   SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS
MAX/MIN TEMP                       63           46           52
AM WIND (MPH)                   SW 11                      W 14
PM WIND (MPH)                   SW 17        SW 12        NW 17
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.10         0.25         0.13
PRECIP DURATION                     2            6            7
PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM         9 PM   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                      11 AM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               64           99           67
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            3
LAL                                 1            3            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              5510          460         4740
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 25        SW 16        NW 22
VENT RATE (KT-FT)              137750         7360       104280
DISPERSION INDEX                  138            7          104
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-172115-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
527 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          SAT
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        MCLDY       CLOUDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     60           80           80
PRECIP TYPE                   SHOWERS        TSTMS        TSTMS
MAX/MIN TEMP                       62           44           51
AM WIND (MPH)                   SW 11                      W 13
PM WIND (MPH)                   SW 16        SW 13        NW 14
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.04         0.25         0.25
PRECIP DURATION                     2            6           12
PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM         7 PM   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                      10 AM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               61          100           74
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            3
LAL                                 1            3            3
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              4800          420         5190
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 23        SW 20        NW 22
VENT RATE (KT-FT)              110400         8400       114180
DISPERSION INDEX                  110            8          114
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-172115-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
527 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          SAT
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        MCLDY       CLOUDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     60           70           70
PRECIP TYPE                   SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS
MAX/MIN TEMP                       66           48           56
AM WIND (MPH)                   SW 10                      W 13
PM WIND (MPH)                   SW 15        SW  9         W 16
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.06         0.16         0.15
PRECIP DURATION                     3            4            7
PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM        10 PM   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                       1 PM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               59           95           69
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            3
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              6150          160         5090
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 24         S 13         W 23
VENT RATE (KT-FT)              147600         2080       117070
DISPERSION INDEX                  148            2          117
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ006>008-172115-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
527 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          SAT
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        MCLDY       CLOUDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     60           80           90
PRECIP TYPE                   SHOWERS      SHOWERS        TSTMS
MAX/MIN TEMP                       65           49           58
AM WIND (MPH)                   SW  8                     SW  9
PM WIND (MPH)                   SW 11        SW  9         W 12
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.10         0.18         0.38
PRECIP DURATION                     4            3           11
PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM        10 PM   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                       5 PM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               67          100           76
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            3
LAL                                 1            3            3
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              6250          160         4540
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 20        SW 13         W 17
VENT RATE (KT-FT)              125000         2080        77180
DISPERSION INDEX                  125            2           77
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 50.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WIND SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
WIND SUNDAY...NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
WIND MONDAY...WEST AROUND 10 MPH.
WIND TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

$$







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