Text Products for FWS Issued by BUF

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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FNUS71 KBUF 161435
FWSBUF

Spot Forecast for Horsecamp/McBride...USFS
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1035 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure across the region will result in mostly sunny skies
today. Winds will be northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 15
mph. Minimum RH values of 45 to 55 percent late this morning
will drop to 25 to 35 percent this afternoon.

Wet weather will then return for Wednesday into Thursday as a
broad area of weakening low pressure passes by to our northwest.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds up to 8 mph.
20 foot wind........Northwest winds 9 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......Max 5700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 18 mph.
Dispersion index....Max 91 (good).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (EDT)          11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............2   4   1   2   1   1   2
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp................51  54  56  57  57  58  57
RH..................50  43  38  35  35  34  35
20 ft wind dir......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N
20 ft wind spd......9   10  12  13  13  13  12
20 ft wind gust.....13  14  14  14  14  14  14
Eye lvl wnd dir.....W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N
Eye lvl wnd spd.....4   5   7   7   8   8   7
Eye lvl wnd gst.....10  10  10  10  10  11  10
Mix hgt (kft).......4.1 5.0 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.4 4.7
Transp wind dir.....W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N
Transp wind spd.....15  17  18  18  18  17  16
Dispersion idx......53  75  88  91  91  81  66
Haines index........3   3   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........70 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds up to 7 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
20 foot wind........North winds 6 to 10 mph becoming northeast late
                    in the evening, then becoming light overnight
                    becoming east around 5 mph early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......Min 100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 13 to 15 mph becoming northeast 0 to 8
                    mph early in the evening, then becoming east 6
                    to 7 mph overnight.
Dispersion index....Min 0 (poor).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............1   2   1   6   1   2   2   2   3   6   12  16
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp................55  52  48  45  43  42  41  40  39  38  38  38
RH..................35  39  46  51  55  55  57  59  64  67  67  70
20 ft wind dir......N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E
20 ft wind spd......10  9   8   7   6   5   3   3   3   3   3   5
20 ft wind gust.....12  12  10  8           4   4   5   5   5   6
Eye lvl wnd dir.....N   N   N   N   NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
Eye lvl wnd spd.....7   6   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.....9   9   8   6       4           4   4   4   4
Mix hgt (kft).......3.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.....15  13  0   8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   7
Dispersion idx......43  19  0   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Haines index........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (85 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers in the morning, then rain showers in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds up to 8 mph.
20 foot wind........Southeast winds 6 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......Max 2100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 17 mph becoming south 17 to 18
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....Max 28 (fair).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.12 inches.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............23  29  42  60  71  82  87  92  97  97  97  97
Weather cov.........                    SCH CHC CHC LKY DEF DEF DEF
Weather type........                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov............
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   10  10  10  20  40  50  70  80  80  90
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp................37  38  40  43  48  51  52  53  53  54  53  54
RH..................72  70  70  67  60  56  59  64  69  69  74  74
20 ft wind dir......E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd......6   8   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   10  12  13
20 ft wind gust.....        11  11  11  12  12  13  14  14  14  14
Eye lvl wnd dir.....SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.....4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   7   7   8
Eye lvl wnd gst.....5   5   8   8   8   9   9   10  10  10  10  11
Mix hgt (kft).......0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.3
Transp wind dir.....E   E   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.....8   10  12  12  13  13  14  15  16  17  17  18
Dispersion idx......3   4   6   10  15  20  24  27  28  27  23  21
Haines index........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3

$$

Forecaster...AR
Requested by...Robert Goulding
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410743.3/BUF
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL robert.a.goulding@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
